Saturday, January 31, 2026

強制安全帶,問題意識何在?立法議會在立法懲罰之前有考慮過嗎?

 

圖一、希臘神話中,奧德修斯射穿十二斧眼。圖片來源:網絡

強制安全帶的法例昨日停止執行了。安全帶的鬧劇,如大埔宏福苑的大火災一樣,都是連串的不利因素,由於官員層層把關疏忽,這些不利因素串聯起來,形成災難。宏福苑是防火圍網不及格、窗口用發泡膠圍封、七座大廈一齊做外牆裝修、冬天風高物燥、風向有利大火傳播、防火警鐘關閉及消防水喉停水(消防署拒絕深圳救兵等因素不算入),七個因素串聯,才會釀成大火災。假如,當日風向是由山吹向海,只有一兩座大廈遭殃。

這就好似荷馬的希臘史詩《奧德賽》(Homer's The Odyssey)在《奧德賽》中,奧德修斯(Odysseus)離開以色加(Ithaca)太久,回來的時候門衛都辨認不到,唯有射術來證明自己是國王。他拉弓射箭,射穿十二把斧頭的孔來證明自己是國王。

安全帶法例也是行政災難,好彩只是引起阿伯打架和安全帶困乘客兩件小事,沒有釀成大災。這行政災難要貫串這些因素才可以形成:律政署起草法例,提交立法會審議的時候,職員並未講清楚執行日期及執行限制是在二〇二六年一月二十五日或之後的新登記巴士,即是說,法例初期只是備用,可以宣傳但不必執行。這是必須向議會講解清楚的。其次,議員審議漫不經心。其三,法例生效之前政府要宣傳,但負責宣傳的部門並未有法律顧問去審閱法例。其四、宣傳之後,未有傳媒或關注團體去審閱法例。其五,法例生效之後,群情洶湧,政府高官振振有詞,部門上下無人去審閱法例。五個因素貫串起來,才發生這宗鬧劇。

政府和傳媒全班人好似被鬼迷。這與宏福苑大火災的情況相似,是香港失運的徵兆。

圖二、巴士陳伯的煩惱。圖片來源:網上,TVB新聞截圖

安全帶事件,我日前在本欄寫了法學原則,之後老政客陳婉嫻和前議員江玉歡連環說破此法例。


今日中午,我在面書寫了鹹濕論政的帖文,嘲諷一下:

香港強制巴士乘客戴安全帶的法例其實沒有錯,法例規定只能在二〇二六年一月二十五日或之後登記的新巴士。政府在草擬法例的時候是考慮到現行的巴士是不適宜強制配戴安全帶的,因為巴士必須預留空間給予乘客活動,才可以強制執行,否則就會插入其他乘客不方便但或者也很期待被插入的地方。而靠窗的乘客如要落車,必須先請側邊乘客鬆開安全帶,前面也要預留空間,否則很容易觀音坐蓮,起碼玩它幾分鐘,趕不及落車。

綁了安全帶,打鐘落車有困難,故此新巴士必須將鐘安裝在前面椅背,不必站立就可以打鐘。

此外,也要顧及社會公義:政府立例不能忽略企位乘客的安全而不給予保障,故此預設的新登記巴士,必定是禁止企位的,也不會有雙層巴士,避免上落樓梯離開安全帶的保護太久。

一句話:為了執行新法例,巴士公司必須重新訂製為此目標而建造(purpose-built)的新巴士!模樣類似豪華版的、加大的小巴,四十座位以內。錢從何來?當然是政府巨資補貼。巴士的載客量減少了,巴士公司的收入減少,除了加價之外,也要政府補貼票價。

如此周到的法例的立法原意,居然沒被議員留意,也沒被政府推廣的人留意,居然埋沒了。你說可惜不可惜?


附錄:新聞提要

巴士強制配帶安全帶的新法規爭議不斷,前立法會議員江玉歡於一月二十九日晚上發文,質疑根據法例的行文,巴士強制配帶安全帶的罰則,只適於今年 1 月 25 日、即法例生效後才首次登記的巴士,根本不適用於絕大部分現行的巴士。

運輸及物流局長陳美寶一月三十日下午見記者,承認徵詢律政司法律意見後,安全帶法例法律條文「技術上不足」,「未能完全反映立法原意」,為「清晰起見」,會盡快安排首先刪除有關條文,「即係話,令目前唔會有法定要求乘客喺乘客專營巴士上邊配帶安全帶。」

陳美寶又指,會在完善相關法律條文後,徵詢立法會再推出。

陳美寶整個見記者的過程約十分鐘,但她多次被問到會否為失誤致歉均無回應,至於她所指會「盡快」刪除條文即需時多欠,她都無回應。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/ba-shi-quan-dai-149563559

Friday, January 30, 2026

How to Become a Better Learner

Everybody hates that feeling when you spend three weeks reading a book, and a month later somebody asks you about it and you can’t remember a damn thing you read. Not only does it make you feel stupid, but it also makes you wonder why the hell you wasted a couple dozen hours of your life on a bunch of words that didn’t stick.

There are better and worse ways to learn. And interestingly, despite all of the babbling that goes on in school when you’re a kid about what you need to learn, not much is said about how to learn effectively.

And when I say “to learn effectively” what I mean is A) to not just accumulate knowledge but B) to be able to apply that knowledge effectively at some point in the future.

By this definition, much of what you did in school was not learning. It was temporary exercises in memorization. By this definition, most of the seminars and courses and books and conferences people spend money on is not learning either.

Something is not truly learned until it changes you in some way, no matter how subtle or simple.


1. Memory Is Based on Relevance

Since my book came out last year, I’ve done probably 500 different promotional things for it. But one of my favorites was participating in this online book club called Mentor Box.

Like most book clubs, Mentor Box sends you a couple books each month and you’re supposed to read them. But what’s cool about Mentor Box is not only do they send you the books, they send you study material related to the books, as well as video interviews with the authors. But their study materials, instead of being like school, where it asks you to repeat information in the book to help memorize it, are designed to force you to apply the lessons to various areas of your life.

That’s because memory works based on relevance. We’re selfish creatures by nature and we only remember what our brain has deemed important to our own lives. You can learn the coolest thing in the world, but if you don’t find a way to make it relevant to you and your well-being in some way, your brain will conveniently forget it.

If you want to remember information, then you need to stop and take a second to ask yourself, “How is this relevant to me?” or “How can I apply this in my life?” You basically have to get personal with it. And if you’re not willing to get personal or think about your own life critically in that way, then most of the information you consume will just wash away.

Mentor Box is a great tool, but you can do this on your own when you’re reading at home. You can go out and buy a notebook (or keep a folder on your computer) and every time you come across something interesting in a book, write down its application or relevance to something in your life — how you can use the concept, how it explains something in your past, how it can help with your problems, etc.

Basically, you need to approach whatever material you’re studying with a clear purpose in your mind. You can’t just read a book to say you read it. That’s like dating someone just to say you dated them. It’s empty and pointless and soon you’ll forget it ever happened. Go into everything you read with a clear purpose of what you want to get out of it, then do the extra mental steps to make sure that happens.


2. Memory Functions by Association, Not by Blind Recall

We’ve all had that experience of watching a documentary or something, and then when we try to think back a couple days later, not remembering what was in it.

That’s because blindly recalling information out of the blue rarely works, and is not an efficient way for our brain to work.

Our memory works via associations. For instance, I saw a documentary a few years ago about the Soviet Union hockey team. It was one of those things that I not only forgot what was in it, but forgot that I had even watched it.

Then, a couple months ago, I was talking to a guy who was writing a book about teamwork. He mentioned something about hockey and the documentary immediately shot back into my head. I started describing it to him, and suddenly flashes of various scenes and interviews started returning to my conscious memory.

The information had always been in my head, it just hadn’t been accessible because it wasn’t associated or relevant to anything I was discussing.

Understanding that memory works in this way is useful though because it means you can become more economical in what you choose to remember and what you don’t.

In this day and age, where we can Google and Wiki everything, sometimes just remembering the core idea or general principle behind a book or article is useful enough in and of itself. I couldn’t tell you the studies or statistics about men’s job prospects and college graduation rates, but I do know they’re declining and I do remember there’s a famous article from The Atlantic (and book) that I could easily look up if I wanted to know all of that stuff (I just did, it’s here). I remember the principle point is that new technologies are creating an economy where the skills that men excel at are no longer as useful as those that women excel at. I couldn’t tell you anything else about the article, but I know enough to find it, pull it up and grab whatever facts I may need and then move on.


3. Reading Does Not Have to Be Linear

Another mistake a lot of people make is assuming that they have to read everything, line by line, one after another. This is not only not true, but it’s often a waste of time and energy.

If you’re reading a nonfiction book and you already understand the main idea of a paragraph, skip to the next one. If you’re reading a study or story that you’ve heard before, skip it (unless you want to reinforce it, of course). If a book is kind of bad and there’s really only one chapter that sounds appealing, just read that chapter and put the rest away.

When you buy a book, you’re not buying the words, you’re buying the useful ideas. The job of the writer is simply to convey those ideas as efficiently as possible. If the writer is doing a poor job of that, then take it upon yourself and act accordingly.

The point of a book (or article, or video, or podcast) is to glean the information that is relevant and important to you. Not to finish it or to understand every word. What matters is the principle or key idea. Everything else is merely a vehicle designed to get that principle or idea to as many people as possible. Once you’ve received that principle/idea, there’s no reason to feel obligated to sit there and read/watch/listen to the rest (unless you want to).


4. Thinking Critically and Asking the Right Questions

Everything you read should be questioned. You should question the author’s biases, whether they’re interpreting information correctly, whether they’re overlooking something.

One thing I try to force myself to do, especially when I’m reading something I agree with, is ask, “How could this potentially be wrong?”

You’ll be surprised how often you come up with stuff.

Other useful questions to ask after everything you read include:

  • “How does the author benefit from writing this?”
  • “Is this something relevant to my own life and happiness? Is it worth remembering?”
  • “What’s the underlying principle here? How could it be applied to other areas of life?”

The truth is, there’s little that we know with absolute certainty. Most models and theories have little empirical support for them (looking at you personality tests), and outside of the hard sciences, much of the academic research out there is flimsy at best, and outright misleading and wrong at worst.

Everything should be taken with a grain of salt (including what I’m writing right here), for the simple reason that almost everything is largely uncertain. And it’s the ability to navigate those uncertainties effectively that will determine the depth of your knowledge and understanding, NOT the simple ability to memorize a bunch of facts and numbers.


Source: Mark Manson

https://markmanson.medium.com/how-to-become-a-better-learner-c1def7f9d5da

Thursday, January 29, 2026

強制安全帶,問題意識何在?立法議會在立法懲罰之前有考慮過嗎?

 


為什麼香港土地公陳雲這次不極力反對巴士強制戴安全帶?此乃是次安全帶爭議之中,最為神秘的地方!

去年,我曾經一力反對過膠袋徵費,拍片三次及寫公開帖文十幾次,並得到全國僑聯的前領導加入反對陣營而令事情告吹。今年一月二十五日,強制安全帶來了,我除了傳閱一些嘲諷的帖文和新聞,並無公開大力反對。原因有二:首先,我不想政府又針對我。其次,我知道此法無法執行。膠袋徵費是籌劃了用政府垃圾袋來執行的,故此必須反對。強制戴安全帶,需要大量執法人員來巡查,阻礙巴士運行,故此執法力量不大。法不治眾之下,人民會鬆懈對待,結果變成自願戴安全帶。

為了與大家鍛煉一下腦筋,這裡不妨與各位一齊思考一下,政府憑什麼強制巴士乘客戴安全帶,否則罰款五千元及監禁三個月(最高刑罰)?


強制佩戴安全帶的公義原則及法學考慮


假若我在議會,遇到這種立法,我思考的法學原則如下:

一、首先,要調查外地和香港的實際情況。目前各地的安全帶強制都是限於跨境巴士,有企位的市內巴士是自願戴上安全帶(如設有)而並非強制。香港原先也是限於無企位的小巴才強制佩戴。各國的理由是跨境巴士容易發生意外,故此強制安全帶,但罰則並無香港之重。

二、此事的問題意識(problematics)在於,安全帶是保障有座位的乘客,那邊沒座位的企位乘客,政府是否放棄保護,各安天命呢?有否座位,視乎上站的地點和時間,那麼於不利的地點和不利的時間上車的人,是否放棄保護呢?這就是安全帶強制與否最深刻的公義原則:那就是如果政府要保護乘客,就全部一體保護,不能放棄企位的乘客。基於這潛藏的法學原則(各地政府未必這樣辯論過而我相信是無),各地的市內巴士只會鼓勵戴安全帶而不能立法強制。故此,我在去年十月二十五日於面書公開呼籲一次,如果要強制安全帶,巴士必須廢除企位!(帖文見本文附錄)當然,我不會將法學的道理講出來!這是極為昂貴的學術機密。

安全帶的問題,討論完畢。

(從上述的討論,大家會知道,為何深層國家絕對不會允許陳雲進入立法議會,因為我會提升民智,不利於豪強和財閥剝削勞苦大眾。我在辯論採用的道理,不限於階級鬥爭,而是源自古希臘邏輯學的、普遍性的理性。)


附錄:陳雲呼籲取消巴士企位的公開帖文

陳雲:星期日講道。巴士要扣安全帶之後,大大增加了皮膚、汗液和口涎的傳染病傳播的機會。小巴也是。有無醫學團體夠膽——我說是夠膽!!!!!!!!!!——去化驗一下這些公用交通工具的安全帶的含菌量和(如有)消毒情況所帶來的化學感染?

是哪一屆立法會通過這些法例的?當然估計是有泛民在內的一屆。

為什麼立法不是限制在危險座位(如前面沒有座位防護有事直接飛出)而是遍及所有座位呢?貪方便嗎?或預設了只是危險座位的乘客知機自己扣安全帶而其他可以隨意選擇嗎?

此外,為了安全,請立法取消巴士的企位,好似小巴那樣,坐夠人就開車!

不超度。

(閱讀智力門檻:智人)


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/qiang-zhi-quan-149390337


[2] 2025-10-26 11:54 https://www.facebook.com/wan.chin.75/posts/pfbid0zyddDyVN9ehvtX2foNrg7FduRyr6qg2qzrAmRgsSCphsLWDAZ68QUV95seBce81jl

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

English professors double down on requiring printed copies of readings

Amid the rise of artificial intelligence and concerns about distraction, more English professors are turning to no-technology policies that prioritize physical books and reading packets.


This academic year, some English professors have increased their preference for physical copies of readings, citing concerns related to artificial intelligence.

Many English professors have identified the use of chatbots as harmful to critical thinking and writing. Now, professors who had previously allowed screens in class are tightening technology restrictions.

Professor Kim Shirkhani, who teaches “Reading and Writing the Modern Essay,” explained that for about a decade prior to this semester, she did not require printed readings. This semester, she is requiring all students to have printed options.

“Over the years I’ve found that when students read on paper they're more likely to read carefully, and less likely in a pinch to read on their phones or rely on chatbot summaries,” Shirkhani wrote to the News. “This improves the quality of class time by orders of magnitude.”

As the course director for “Reading and Writing the Modern Essay,” Shirkhani leaves the decision of allowing technology in the classroom up to each individual instructor. Yet others have followed her practice.

Last semester, professor Pamela Newton, who also teaches the course, allowed students to bring readings either on tablets or in printed form. While laptops felt like a “wall” in class, Newton said, students could use iPads to annotate readings and lie them flat on the table during discussions. However, Newton said she felt “paranoid” that students could be texting during class.

This semester, Newton has removed the option to bring iPads to class, except for accessibility needs, as a part of the general movement in the “Reading and Writing the Modern Essay” seminars to “swim against the tide of AI use,” reduce “the infiltration of tech,” and “go back to pen and paper,” she said.

Regarding the printing cost, Newton and Shirkhani both emphasized that Yale has programs to help students who need financial assistance paying for printing.

“I totally get that cost and the burden of that cost,” Newton said in an interview. “I kind of feel like there's going to be a book in most classes that you have to buy, and the course package just sort of replaces a physics textbook.”

Spring semester courses offered a total of 34 TYCO packets this year, up from 20 at the same point last spring, according to archived versions of the TYCO Student Course Packet website. Fall semester courses increased from 30 packets in 2024 to 35 last semester.

TYCO Print is a printing service where professors can upload course files for TYCO to print out for students as they order. Shorter packets can cost around $20, while longer packets can cost upwards of $150 when ordered with the cheapest binding option.

Other English professors are maintaining preexisting no-technology policies.

Professor Nancy Yousef, continuing from her approach at previous schools, has kept a requirement for printed readings.

“The English classroom is increasingly a kind of special place where it’s still possible to converse without the screen,” Yousef said in a phone interview. “AI only seems to make it more imperative to make sure that students are having a direct experience with the text.”

Yousef explained that literature courses are a “practice of attention and a practice of learning how to ask a good question.” Yousef said she hopes students come away from class with greater questions and increased engagement with the texts rather than “a set of bullet points that can go on a PowerPoint.”

Writing professor Anne Fadiman wrote to the News that she asks students to buy the course packet and, when possible, to use physical copies of the books.

“When you read a book or a printed course packet, you turn real pages instead of scrolling, so you have a different, more direct, and (I think) more focused relationship with the words,” Fadiman wrote.

Professors who continue to allow technology in their classroom cite printing costs and concerns about paper usage.

Professor Stephanie Kelley does not require students to bring printed readings and allows technology “for accessibility, cost-related and environmental reasons.” While she has noticed students being distracted during class, such as by online shopping, she wrote to the News that “it can be a lot of paper, most of it going straight in the bin once class is done.”

Kelley wrote that she wonders why the discussion of course material costs “more often falls on humanities classes rather than those with required textbooks that are often prohibitively expensive to rent or purchase.”

In the fall, Yale College Council Senators Siena Valdivia ’28, Alex Chen ’28 and Alexander Medel ’27 — who is a staff writer for the News — sponsored a $3,500 stipend prioritizing first-generation, low-income students to receive financial aid for printing costs. Medel and Senator Aaron Lin ’28 also sponsored a $6,000 stipend to “alleviate the cost of course materials and textbooks for Yale College students.” These stipends come from the YCC budget.


“In an ideal world, printing would be subsumed into the fiscal responsibilities of the university. But under further priority reconfiguring in light of the endowment tax, any such changes face an uphill climb,” Chen wrote to the News, referring to the upcoming increase in the federal tax on Yale’s investment returns, which was enacted as part of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year.

For Yale students, printing one double-sided black-and-white page on a University printer costs 12 cents.


Source: Jolynda Wang

https://yaledailynews.com/articles/english-professors-double-down-on-requiring-printed-copies-of-readings

Tuesday, January 06, 2026

東征西怨與簞食壺漿:評美國擄走委內瑞拉總統之是非

星期二深夜講道,評委內瑞拉,說春秋大義!有人說,特朗普攻入委內瑞拉,擄走馬杜羅,是違反國際法,破壞主權,如此,則普京在二〇二二年春天攻入基輔也是可以諒解云云。然則,此事在孔孟的春秋戰國,如何看待?


首先,看事實,普京攻入基輔,烏克蘭百姓有否上街跳舞慶祝?沒有。反之,俄軍攻入烏克蘭遇到的不是烏克蘭人民夾道歡迎,而是交相唾罵,烏克蘭阿婆將向日葵種子塞入俄國士兵衣袋,希望他能做到唯一一件好事:在他於烏克蘭戰場成為屍體之後,可以長出一株株向日葵。現在,特朗普攻入委內瑞拉,不單是委內瑞拉的人慶祝,英國也有人說,為什麼不擄走我們的首相Starmer?

至於委內瑞拉這些殘暴統治、通脹飛起、人民四處流竄逃命的失敗國家,其主權又是什麼回事呢?古人謂之:國將不國!


我舉出兩條古書,給大家看看孔孟之道。首先是東征西怨,其次是簞食壺漿。在我讀中學的香港英治時代,這是必須讀過的兩則古文或成語故事。


東征西怨:出兵征討東方,而西方的百姓埋怨不先來解救自己。語出《書經.仲虺之誥》:「乃葛伯仇餉,初征自葛,東征西夷怨,南征北狄怨。曰:『奚獨後予。』」形容人民對仁義之師的盼望。商湯王初次征伐葛伯,討伐東方異族,西方夷人就埋怨不先去救他們;征伐南方狄人,東方夷人也抱怨不先去救他們,說:「為什麼只留下我們?」你以為這是古書將商湯王的仁政浪漫化?你現在就親眼看到實例!窮國老百姓見到特朗普,都說Sir, this way.


簞食壺漿,以迎王師:以簞盛食,以壺盛漿來迎王師。指軍隊受到人民的擁護與愛戴,紛紛慰勞犒賞。語出《孟子.梁惠王下》:齊人伐燕,勝之。宣王問曰:「或謂寡人勿取,或謂寡人取之。以萬乘之國伐萬乘之國,五旬而舉之,人力不至於此。不取,必有天殃。取之,何如?」孟子對曰:「取之而燕民悅,則取之。古之人有行之者,武王是也。取之而燕民不悅,則勿取。古之人有行之者,文王是也。以萬乘之國伐萬乘之國,簞食壺漿,以迎王師,豈有它哉?避水火也。如水益深,如火益熱,亦運而已矣。」

語譯:齊國攻打燕國並取得勝利後,齊宣王詢問孟子:「有人說我不該佔領燕國,有人說應該佔領。我以強國攻打強國,只用了五十天就拿下,這不可能只是人力辦到的,不佔領恐怕會招致天譴。如果佔領,怎麼樣呢?」

孟子回答:「如果你佔領之後,燕國百姓感到歡喜,那就佔領,古人中有這麼做的,如武王。如果佔領而燕國百姓不悅,那就不要佔領,古人中也有這樣的,如文王。像這樣一個大國攻打另一大國,結果百姓端著飯食與水來迎接軍隊,這不是別的原因,而是因為他們要逃避暴政之苦。如果你帶去的不是解救,而是更嚴重的壓迫,那麼百姓就會像逃避水火一樣地逃離,政權也就會隨之覆滅。」


孔孟之道,是士大夫的常理,也是老百姓的常理。新課程不要背誦成語故事,不讀《孟子》,就是要下一代不懂得常理,只懂得國際法


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/dong-zheng-xi-yu-147558590

https://www.facebook.com/wan.chin.75/posts/pfbid04VqsV8Z4SiBFE9QUDqYZoPD8mURxZawNhBhqu38m7fJXC2GNbhGDDoyKJUaGN1iBl

Monday, January 05, 2026

特朗普在軍事上施展矩陣戰術,伊朗、俄國有排驚,中共也寢食難安

 

圖一:美軍突襲委內瑞拉,擄走總統馬杜羅夫婦後,特朗普即點名墨西哥、哥倫比亞與古巴威脅美國安全,又放話美國絕對需要格陵蘭島。(圖片來源:businessfocus,星島頭條,New York Post)

特朗普的矩陣戰術是政治上的聯動效應(linkage effect)利用多個政治和經濟的據點來引發效果。要執行矩陣戰術,要有一個行動大綱領,之後分出幾個日程,歸結到大綱領。遇到障礙就繞過去,從其他據點來對付那個障礙。例如是次特朗普突襲委內瑞拉,是因為普京不答應停火,特朗普唯有先做其他預備成熟的小事情,逐個火頭燒着,產生聯動效應,最終燒到普京,逼他以更低的條件答應停火。普京如果一直捱着,最終可能逼到中共在一兩年內攻台,被美國收拾。這是一場好驚險的博弈!

關稅戰、貿易制裁只是常規的、持續的壓力,最終的解決,仍是要用戰爭的鐵拳!大家還記得我寫過的哈德遜研究所的中共接收計劃嗎?文化沙龍也談過。很多人以為是天馬行空,但是次突襲委內瑞拉及接管該國,就看到美國是講得出、做得到的,委內瑞拉的中共防衛武器,雷達系統之類,在美軍突襲的考驗下,也全盤敗北,甚至馬杜羅聲稱無法侵入的華為手機,更協助了美國軍隊的定位追踪。


赤馬紅羊第一炮

踏入二〇二六年,赤馬紅羊第一道火不在台海或中日之間點燃,而是南美。美軍一月二日突襲委內瑞拉,生擒總統馬杜羅夫婦,隨後美國總統特朗普即點名墨西哥、哥倫比亞與古巴威脅美國安全;然後在空軍一號上向隨行記者密切關注伊朗局勢,若當局殺害示威者將遭受重創;又美國絕對需要格陵蘭島。

外界認為這是印證去年底華府的《國家安全戰略》當中,列明會實行特朗普式門羅主義。中國與及多個南美洲國家美方這樣擄走馬杜羅違反國際法,西方陣營當中,只有歐盟主席馮德萊恩即時表態,公開支持委內瑞拉和平民主過渡。烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基則趁機發聲明,暗示美國應該考慮逮捕俄羅斯總統普京:「如果能夠對付這樣的獨裁者,那麼美國就知道下一步該怎麼做了。」

雖然特朗普在一月三日的記者會上詳細解釋這次行動的正當性,列舉馬杜羅政權透過毒品走私、派遣幫派入境、竊取美國石油公司資產,以及在西半球引入敵對勢力威脅美國;又解釋美國暫時接管委內瑞拉,是因為如果美國立即撤走,由其他人接管,該國或重蹈過去數十年的覆轍;他不願冒險讓另一個不把委內瑞拉人民利益放在心上的人掌權,不過我的結論只有四字:矩陣戰術項莊舞劍,意在沛公,特朗普要打的大老,目前恐怕是寢食難安。


從產油大國到逾百倍通脹,委內瑞拉親中之路

圖二:委內瑞拉是南美洲產油大國,人均GDP曾踞全球第四,但全國經濟仰賴賣油收入,導致通脹率受油價波動影響,經濟迅速衰退。(圖片來源:yahoo,香港01)

先談一下委內瑞拉這個南美洲產油大國(產的是重油,提煉不及阿拉伯國家的輕油那麼容易,但價錢便宜,中共輸入很多。)。他們的人均GDP曾踞全球第四,但一九七〇年代起把石油產業國有化,全國經濟仰賴賣油收入,導致通脹率受油價波動影響,從一九七八年的7.2%暴漲至一九八九年的81%,必須向外國借錢。

二〇〇〇年起,中國用貸款與直接投資能源、家電、汽車,國防系統等來換取委內瑞拉石油,至今總額六百億美元;同時委內瑞拉亦逐漸疏遠歐美。馬杜羅二〇一四年上台後,國際油價從每桶一百一十五美元一直跌至二〇一六年二月的卅五美元,委內瑞拉經濟迅速衰退,通脹率達800%,全國糧食短缺、治安惡化。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計該國今年通脹率270%,明年更飆升至685%;當地九成民眾處於貧窮線以下,過去十三年逾七百萬人為生計出逃。


伊朗全國爆發騷亂,最高領袖哈米尼傳出逃俄國

至於伊朗,長期遭西方國家嚴厲制裁,令經濟長年蕭條、失業率與通脹高企。其後加入了中國倡儀的金磚國家,二〇二二年起更以人民幣計價,把九成石油賣給中國來換取中國車、消費品、電子產品等軍民兩用的物資。不過近期伊朗貨幣里亞爾(Rial)嚴重貶值、全國出現四十年來最嚴重乾旱,糧食難以自給自足,民怨沸騰;去年底起全國爆發騷亂,迄今至少十五死逾六百人被捕。

圖三:伊朗去年底起因貨幣大貶值引發全國騷亂,據報最高領袖哈米尼計劃,一旦局勢失控他將逃到俄羅斯。(圖片來源:AP,FTVNEWS)

伊朗最高領袖哈米尼(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)示威者是外國傭兵,下令安全部隊重挫對方氣焰。生擒馬杜羅後,華府國務院即在波斯語社交帳戶發布一段十二秒的短片,內容是戰爭部長赫格塞斯的發言,並附有波斯語字幕:「馬杜羅曾有機會,就像伊朗也有機會一樣,直到機會消失,他也失去了機會。他做了一些事,並承擔了後果。」外界認為是華府特意發放給哈米尼看的。

特朗普在空軍一號上向隨行記者「我們密切關注伊朗局勢。如果他們像過去那樣殺害示威者,他們將遭受重創。」英媒《泰晤士報》則引述情報稱哈米尼早有計劃,一旦伊朗局勢失控、軍隊叛逃,他將流亡俄羅斯。若然屬實,伊朗政教合一的政治體制或告終。


特朗普回朝再施矩陣戰術,一石二鳥對付中俄


圖四:中美新冷戰下,委內瑞拉和伊朗這種失敗國家對特朗普來說,相當有利用價值。(圖片來源:yahoo財經,香港01)


委內瑞拉伊朗的共通點是,兩者都是產油國被美國點名制裁與中俄非常友好加入了一帶一路倡議,而且兩國經濟衰退國家陷入崩潰邊緣。中美新冷戰下,這種失敗國家對特朗普來說都相當有利用價值,足以拿來隔山打牛他把火頭逐一燒着,使之產生聯動效應,拿來對付不願結束俄烏戰爭的俄羅斯,最終普京只能以更低的條件答應停火。同時借力打力,若普京一直捱着,即順勢拖累中共,來個一石二鳥。

事實上,目前委內瑞拉尚有過百億美元貸款未以石油方式歸還中國,卻已被美國暫時托管,加上特朗普已表明美國大型石油公司、全球最大的石油公司,將投資數十億美元來修復委當地的相關設施來開採石油,中國那筆錢相信覆水難收。更禍不單行的是,外媒爆料,已有數十個美國投資者計劃今年三月到委內瑞拉考察,看來美資好快取代當地中資,可謂順道幫了美國經濟一把。


附錄:美軍公開生擒委內瑞拉總統細節

二〇二六年一月三日美國總統特朗普在白宮召開記者會,宣布美軍在一日前突擊委內瑞拉,並已活捉總統馬杜羅(Nicolas Maduro)與太太弗洛雷斯(Cilia Flores);行動中沒有美軍陣亡,也沒有損失軍事設備。他列舉了馬杜羅政權如何威脅美國,包括毒品走私、派遣幫派入境、竊取美國石油資產,以及在西半球引入敵對勢力;他在會上宣布美國暫時管理委內瑞拉,直到該國能夠進行「安全、適當且審慎的權力移交」。

這次行動美方歷時數月策劃,代號「絕對決心」(Operation Absolute Resolve)。中情局一方面掌握馬杜羅作息時間,與線人裏應外合;同時美軍搭建了馬杜羅的安全屋來反覆演練。期間他們曾多次試圖發動攻擊,包括在剛過去的聖誕節等,但都因天氣不佳而臨時叫停。最終美軍在一月二日深夜十時拍板,空襲委內瑞拉首都卡拉卡斯(Caracas)並癱瘓防空系統之後,美軍直升機乘機攻入馬杜羅官邸捉人。

一直有傳今屆諾貝爾和平獎得主委內瑞拉反對派領袖馬查多(Maria Corina Machado)將接任總統一職,不過目前仍是未知數,因為該國暫時由馬杜羅副手羅德里格斯(James Rodríguez)代任總統。特朗普警告羅德里格斯若不合作,她將付上比馬杜羅更沉重的代價;羅德里格斯則發公開信邀請美國合作制定國家發展策略,強調希望享有和平。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/te-lang-pu-zai-e-147468991

Saturday, January 03, 2026

關於委內瑞拉:你應當瞭解的五件事

華盛頓與加拉加斯之間的衝突正劇烈升級。美國顯然已對委內瑞拉境內目標發動攻擊。儘管衝突表面上與禁毒有關,但深層原因遠不止於此。

委內瑞拉加拉加斯。據稱美國空襲後,高速公路幾乎空無一人
圖片來源: Juan Barreto/AFP


(德國之聲中文網)美國顯然已對委內瑞拉境內目標實施了軍事打擊,這標誌著雙方衝突的嚴重升級。自去年9月以來,美軍已在加勒比海和太平洋海域多次攔截並攻擊據稱載有毒品的船隻。以下是關於委內瑞拉局勢的五個核心背景:


委內瑞拉一直由左翼威權領導人尼古拉斯‧馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)執掌
圖片來源: Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo/dpa/picture alliance

1. 威權主義統治

自2013年以來,委內瑞拉一直由左翼威權領導人尼古拉斯‧馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)執掌。在去年充滿舞弊爭議的選舉後,馬杜羅宣誓就職,任期將延長至2031年。國際組織和人權活動人士指責馬杜羅政府鎮壓異見人士、非法逮捕反對派、實施酷刑和暴力。儘管面臨大規模抗議,馬杜羅依然地位穩固,這主要得益於軍方對其保持效忠。

今年,委內瑞拉反對派領袖瑪麗亞‧科裡納‧馬查多(María Corina Machado)因「為推動獨裁向民主的公正和平轉型而鬥爭」被授予諾貝爾和平獎。然而,由於身陷叛國罪調查並隱居地下長達一年,她在秘密離境後,直到奧斯陸頒獎禮結束數小時才抵達現場。委內瑞拉檢方已將其列為逃犯。若她嘗試回國,將面臨被捕或被禁止入境的嚴厲後果。


受制於制裁、國營石油公司(PDVSA)的管理不善及貪腐,該國目前日產量僅約100萬桶,遠低於20年前的近300萬桶
圖片來源: Yuri Cortez/AFP

2. 全球最大的石油儲量

據估計,委內瑞拉擁有3030億桶石油儲量,位居世界第一。這些儲量多為重質原油,需要特殊技術進行開采和精煉。儘管資源驚人,但受制於制裁、國營石油公司(PDVSA)的管理不善及貪腐,該國目前日產量僅約100萬桶,遠低於20年前的近300萬桶。今年起,美國石油巨頭雪佛龍(Chevron)已恢復在委業務。

12月中旬,美軍強行登上一艘委內瑞拉油輪,令局勢進一步惡化。華盛頓辯稱該船屬於支持外國恐怖組織的非法運輸網路;加拉加斯則譴責美方實施了「國際海盜行為」。


委內瑞拉86%的家庭生活在貧困線以下
圖片來源: Juan Carlos Hernandez/ZUMA Wire/imago images

3. 極度貧困

儘管擁有石油、黃金和稀土等豐富資源,委內瑞拉卻深陷極端貧困。根據委內瑞拉金融觀察站(OVF)的報告,該國86%的家庭生活在貧困線以下。平均家庭月收入僅為231美元,而一個家庭的基本食品開支則需391美元。許多家庭完全依賴海外親屬的匯款度日。


聯合國數據顯示,已有790萬委內瑞拉人離開家鄉,約佔總人口的四分之一。
圖片來源: Herika Martinez/AFP/Getty Images

4. 難民危機

嚴重的經濟危機疊加國家鎮壓,引發了大規模移民潮。大量高素質勞動力早已流失。聯合國數據顯示,已有790萬委內瑞拉人離開家鄉,約佔總人口的四分之一。大多數移民滯留在鄰近的拉美國家,但也有許多人前往美國或歐洲尋求生機。今年,歐盟接收的難民申請者中,委內瑞拉人首次位居首位。


中國是委內瑞拉的關鍵盟友之一
圖片來源: picture-alliance/Xinhua/Y. Dawei

5. 與美國勁敵結盟

馬杜羅將自己塑造成在美國「後院」反抗「洋基帝國主義」的鬥士。他常年抨擊帝國主義,將委內瑞拉描繪成社會主義樣板。古巴和尼加拉瓜的左翼政府是其堅定支持者,據稱古巴特工在協助馬杜羅維持軍隊紀律方面發揮了作用。此外,俄羅斯、中國和伊朗也是委內瑞拉的關鍵盟友。


Source: 德聞(德聞是德國之聲中文網集體筆名之一。)X: @dw_chinese