Friday, March 06, 2026

You’re still designing for an architecture that no longer exists

Last Tuesday, I asked Claude to prepare a competitive analysis. Not in a chat window. Not through a prompt. I opened Cowork, pointed it to a folder on my desktop, and said what I needed. It read my files. It cross-referenced data from Slack through a connector. It pulled calendar context. It produced a document — formatted, structured, sourced — and saved it to my working folder. I didn’t open a single application. I didn’t navigate a single menu. I didn’t click through a single interface.

I sat there for a moment, staring at the screen. Not because something had gone wrong — but because nothing looked familiar. The windows were gone. The menus were gone. The entire choreography of opening, navigating, operating, saving, closing, and opening the next thing — the choreography I’d been performing for twenty years — had simply… disappeared.

And that’s when I realized: I wasn’t using a tool. I was working inside a different environment. One that nobody had bothered to name yet.

We keep asking the wrong question. We keep asking how good is the assistant — how well it writes, codes, summarizes, reasons. But that question belongs to the old architecture. What’s actually happening is bigger: the environment itself is changing. The space where we work — the one we’ve inhabited for four decades, the one built on windows and menus and folders and clicks — is being replaced by something structurally different. And if you’re still designing screens, flows, and navigation systems, you might be perfecting the blueprint of a building that’s already been demolished.


Forty years of the same interface

In 1984, Apple introduced the Macintosh and, with it, a way of working that would define every professional environment for the next four decades. The graphical user interface gave us windows, icons, menus, and a pointer — the WIMP paradigm. It was revolutionary. And then it froze.

Think about what changed between 1984 and today. Processing power grew exponentially. Storage went from kilobytes to terabytes. Networks connected billions of devices. Screens went from bulky CRTs to panels in our pockets. But the interaction logic — the fundamental way we relate to our work environment — remained essentially the same. You open an application. You navigate to what you need. You operate it manually, step by step. You save. You close. You open the next one.

The internet didn’t change this. It added connectivity, but you still navigated — now through links instead of folders. Mobile didn’t change it either. It made the environment portable, but you still tapped through apps, scrolled through feeds, clicked through menus. Even cloud computing — which transformed infrastructure — left the interaction surface largely untouched. You were still the operator. The system still waited for your commands.

Everything change except the interface. Generated with Gemini.

As Satya Nadella put it: “Thirty years of change is being compressed into three years.” But what’s being compressed isn’t just speed or capability. It’s the architecture of the environment itself.

For four decades, the working environment asked you how. How do you want to format this? Which menu holds the function you need? What’s the right sequence of clicks to get from here to there? The entire interface was a map, and your job was to navigate it.

That map is disappearing. And what’s replacing it isn’t a better map — it’s a fundamentally different kind of space.


What Claude is actually showing us

Let me describe what working with Claude looks like today — not theoretically, but practically. Because the shift becomes obvious once you stop thinking about features and start paying attention to the experience.

Cowork reads files on your desktop, modifies documents, creates deliverables, and operates within your working folder — asking for confirmation before significant actions, working autonomously within defined boundaries. It launched in January 2026 and, within weeks, triggered a $285 billion selloff in software stocks. Not because of what it does, but because of what it replaces: the need to open applications at all.

Claude Code doesn’t assist developers — it is the development environment. Engineers describe entire systems in natural language, and Code builds them: writing files, running tests, submitting pull requests, spawning parallel sub-agents for different tasks. It hit $1 billion in run-rate revenue within six months of general availability. Spotify reports that roughly half of all their updates now flow through AI-generated code, with a 90% reduction in engineering time for large-scale migrations.

Claude in Chrome operates your browser — managing calendars, drafting emails, filling forms, extracting data — maintaining context across sessions.

Claude in Excel reads complex multi-tab workbooks, builds pivot tables, pulls live market data through connectors from S&P Global, Moody’s, and FactSet.

Memory doesn’t just store preferences. It maintains hierarchical context — organization-wide policies, project-level standards, individual preferences — and recovers the full state of your working environment in seconds. As one developer described it: “Treat it as system state. The file becomes the source of truth.”

And underneath all of this, MCP — the Model Context Protocol — connects Claude to your entire technology stack: Google Drive, Slack, GitHub, Gmail, Figma, Notion, Salesforce, and thousands more. With 97 million monthly SDK downloads and adoption by OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft, MCP has been donated to the Linux Foundation as an open standard — what Thoughtworks described as one of the fastest standards convergence cycles in recent tech history.

Now step back and look at what I just described. Not a chat interface with added capabilities. A working environment — one where the system reads your context, understands your purpose, operates across your tools, and delivers results while you focus on what actually matters.

Nick Turley, OpenAI’s Head of Product, said it plainly: “We never meant to build a chatbot; we meant to build a super assistant, and we got a little sidetracked.”

Everyone got sidetracked. The text box made us think we were talking to a tool. We were actually sitting inside the first draft of a new environment.

Claude Ecosystem Diagram. Generated with Gemini.


The three variables of a new architecture

If this is a new environment and not just a better tool, it should be structurally different — not incrementally improved. And it is. But to see the structure, you need to stop looking at capabilities and start looking at variables. What coordinates define this space that didn’t exist in the previous one?

I’ve spent the last two years studying this question, and what I’ve found is that three variables consistently distinguish this new architecture from everything that came before it.


Intention. In the traditional working environment, you tell the system how to do things. You navigate menus, select options, sequence operations. The system doesn’t know what you want — it knows what you clicked. In the new environment, you express what you want to achieve. The system interprets your purpose, weighs context, and determines the path. Claude doesn’t execute commands; it interprets goals. MCP doesn’t connect tools for the sake of integration; it connects them at the service of what you’re trying to accomplish. This is the shift from procedural thinking to intentional thinking — from operating a machine to having a conversation with a collaborator who understands purpose.

Intention. Generated with Gemini.


Autonomy. In the traditional environment, systems assist. They wait for your next instruction. Every action requires a human operator pressing a button, selecting an option, confirming a step. In the new environment, systems act. Claude Code doesn’t wait for you to dictate each line of code — it plans, executes, tests, iterates, and spawns sub-agents to work in parallel. Cowork doesn’t need step-by-step guidance — it works toward outcomes within boundaries you define. This is not automation in the industrial sense, where machines repeat predefined sequences. This is agency: the capacity to pursue goals through autonomous decision-making while maintaining human oversight.

Autonomy. Generated with Gemini.


Adaptation. In the traditional environment, systems remain fixed. Your software behaves the same way on day one and day one thousand. If you want it to change, you configure it manually — or wait for the next version. In the new environment, systems evolve. Claude’s memory learns your preferences, your team’s standards, your organization’s policies. It gets better at understanding you over time. The interaction isn’t static — it’s alive. What was once a tool that needed to be configured becomes an environment that learns to fit.

Adaptation. Generated with Gemini.


These three variables — intention, autonomy, and adaptation — don’t operate in isolation. They are unified by a fourth principle: orchestration. MCP is the clearest manifestation of this. It’s the connective tissue that allows intentions to flow across tools, autonomous actions to coordinate across systems, and adaptive learning to compound across interactions. As Microsoft’s CTO Kevin Scott observed at Build 2025: “MCP is filling such an unbelievably big need in the ecosystem… it’s really kind of breathtaking.” Atlassian’s CTO Rajeev Rajan called it “the gold standard for how LLMs interact with tools.”

But orchestration isn’t just a protocol. It’s the architectural principle that turns three independent variables into a coherent environment. It’s what makes the difference between a collection of smart features and a fundamentally new working space.

Here’s the critical point: these aren’t features of Claude. They are coordinates of a new architecture. Any system that embodies intention, autonomy, adaptation, and orchestration is operating in this new space — regardless of which company built it. Claude happens to be the most complete manifestation today. But the architecture is bigger than any single product.

Architecture 6 (HOW) vs Architecture 7 (WHAT). Generated with Gemini.


Everyone is describing the same thing

What makes this moment historically significant is that the people building these systems are arriving at the same conclusion from entirely different directions — and most of them don’t realize they’re describing the same thing.

Goldman Sachs’ CIO Marco Argenti writes: “Rather than functioning as one-dimensional applications, AI models are becoming operating systems that independently access tools in order to perform tasks.” Sam Altman told Sequoia Capital: “People in college use it as an operating system.” Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, frames it as: “This is going to be the next platform of computing.” Jensen Huang and Siemens announced a partnership to build what they literally called “the Industrial AI Operating System.”

From the design world, the language is different but the observation is the same. John Maeda describes the shift from UX to AX — Agentic Experience — where “designers become orchestrators of experiences rather than crafters of interfaces.” Rachel Kobetz, PayPal’s Chief Design Officer, argues that “the real work of design is orchestrating how intelligence behaves.” Jakob Nielsen, in his 2026 predictions, charts what he calls “a fundamental shift from Conversational UI to Delegative UI.” And Jenny Wen, who leads design for Claude at Anthropic, put it bluntly on Lenny’s Podcast: “This design process that designers have been taught, we sort of treat it as gospel. That’s basically dead.”

Orchestrators. Intelligence that behaves. Delegative rather than conversational. The design process itself declared dead — by the person designing the system that killed it. Everyone is circling the same structural transformation.


I should be honest about where this breaks. Jared Spool makes a fair point: The world romanticizes AI as an all-powerful, game-changing technology when, in reality, it barely works. But it demos well. He’s not wrong — intention interpretation still fails, autonomy can produce confidently wrong results, and adaptation has boundaries that aren’t always transparent. The gap between what these systems promise and what they reliably deliver is real, and anyone designing for this architecture needs to take that gap seriously. But the existence of a gap doesn’t invalidate the architecture. The early web had broken links, crashed browsers, and took minutes to load a single page. The architecture was still real. The question was always whether the structural logic would hold as the technology matured. I believe this one will — not because every interaction works today, but because the variables are right.


This is not a product. This is an architecture.

There is a pattern that most people in technology miss because it operates on timescales longer than product cycles.

In 1440, the printing press didn’t improve manuscripts — it created a new architecture for distributing knowledge. In 1876, the Dewey Decimal System didn’t improve bookshelves — it created a new architecture for classifying information. In 1936, the Turing machine didn’t improve calculators — it created a new architecture for computing. In 1984, the graphical interface didn’t improve command lines — it created a new architecture for human-computer interaction. In 1989, the World Wide Web didn’t improve networks — it created a new architecture for connecting information. In 2007, the smartphone didn’t improve phones — it created a new architecture for mobile access.

Each of these was a structural transformation in how humans organize and access information. Not a better version of what came before, but a fundamentally new set of coordinates — new variables, new paradigms, new possibilities that simply didn’t exist in the previous architecture.

Timeline of the 7 Architectures. Generated with Gemini.


What we are witnessing now is the seventh such transformation. The architecture of Intelligence. A structure defined not by windows and clicks and navigation, but by intention, autonomy, adaptation, and orchestration.

I call this Architecture 7 — the seventh structural transformation in how humans organize access to information.

In The Intelligence Architect, I mapped each of these seven transformations in detail: the variables that define them, the design principles that emerge from each shift, and the practical frameworks for building within a new architecture. But you don’t need the book to see what’s happening. You just need to pay attention to what Claude is showing us right now: we are not living through an AI upgrade. We are living through an architectural shift.

And architectural shifts don’t ask for permission. They don’t arrive with a press release explaining what changed. They arrive as a quiet realization that the environment you’ve been working in — the one that felt permanent, the one built on windows and menus and forty years of muscle memory — has already been replaced by something you can’t yet name but can already feel.

Claude is the first Architecture 7 environment built for people who work with information. It won’t be the last. The same structural principles — intention replacing navigation, autonomy replacing manual operation, adaptation replacing static configuration — will reshape environments for entertainment, communication, education, and every domain where humans interact with complex systems. The evidence — from $1 billion run-rates to $285 billion selloffs to 97 million monthly SDK downloads — makes that trajectory unmistakable.


What this means for designers, practically

If the architecture has changed, so has the work. Designing for intention means your wireframes become something closer to operating manuals — not layouts of screens, but descriptions of outcomes the system should pursue. Designing for autonomy means defining boundaries instead of workflows: what the system can do on its own, where it must pause for confirmation, how it recovers when it gets things wrong. Designing for adaptation means building feedback loops rather than preference panels — mechanisms through which the environment learns from each interaction rather than waiting to be manually configured. And designing for orchestration means mapping how intelligence flows across tools, not how users navigate between them. The screen is no longer the unit of design. The intent is.


You are already inside it

If you used Claude this week — or ChatGPT, or Copilot, or any AI system that understood your intent, acted autonomously, and adapted to your context — you didn’t use a chatbot. You worked inside a new environment. You just didn’t have the language for it yet.

The language matters. Because when you call it “a chatbot,” you design chat interfaces. When you call it “an assistant,” you design helper features. When you call it “a tool,” you design toolbars. But when you recognize it as a new architecture — with its own variables, its own structural principles — you design differently. You stop asking “where should the button go?” and start asking “how does the system interpret intention?” You stop designing navigation and start designing orchestration. You stop building static configurations and start building adaptive environments.

The forty-year environment built on windows, menus, and manual navigation is giving way to one built on intention, autonomy, adaptation, and orchestration. Every major voice in technology and design is converging on this observation from different angles. The question is no longer whether the shift is happening.

The question is whether you’ll design for the architecture that’s arriving — or keep drawing menus for the one that already left.


Source: Adrian Levy

https://uxdesign.cc/youre-still-designing-for-an-architecture-that-no-longer-exists-28b0b10900dd

Friday, February 13, 2026

26 Rules to Be a Better Thinker in 2026

A couple of years ago, I asked Robert Greene what ​he thought about AI. “I think back to when I was 19-years-old and in college,” Robert said. It was a class where they were to read and translate classical Greek texts “They gave us a passage of Thucydides, the hardest writer of all to read in ancient Greek,” he explained. “I had this one paragraph I must have spent ten hours trying to translate…That had an incredible impact on me. It developed character, patience, and discipline that helps me even to this day. What if I had ChatGPT, and I put the passage in there, and it gave me the translation right away? The whole thinking process would have been annihilated right there.”

What does he mean by “thinking process”? He means the slow, tedious, difficult work of figuring something out for yourself. The discipline. The patience. The hours and hours of sitting with frustration and confusion on your way to knowledge and understanding.

This is why I do all my research on physical notecards. It is not fast, easy, or efficient. And that is the point. Writing things down by hand forces me to engage and struggle with the material for an extended period of time. It forces me to take my time. To go over things again and again. To be immersed. To be focused, patient, and disciplined. To come to understand things deeply.

People are talking about what AI is going to replace, that it’s the sum total of all human knowledge, that it’s going to make expertise obsolete. And it’s true it will do a lot and it is unbelievably powerful, but in many ways it makes thinking even more important. You have to be able to interpret what it spits out. You need to know when something’s off. Without domain expertise, without the ability to think critically, to question, to push back, you’ll be fooled. Again and again.

The irony of AI, this cutting-edge technology, is that it makes the humanities more valuable than ever. It makes brainpower even more important. Reading. Knowing things. Having taste. Understanding context. Detecting lies or nonsense. In short: being a discerning, critical, clear thinker.

The tools are only getting more powerful. The noise is only getting louder. We’re being bombarded with more information than any generation in history, and I worry — from some of the emails I get, from the comments I see — that too many people just don’t have the ability to wrap their heads around what’s being thrown at them. Which makes clear thinking one of the most essential skills of our time.


What follows is my advice for what you’re going to need more than ever in this brave new world — 26 rules for becoming a better thinker.


– Take another think. The problem with our thoughts is that they’re often wrong — sometimes preposterously so. Nothing illustrates this quite like what’s called an “eggcorn,” words or expressions we confidently mishear and then contort to match our misperception. “All for not” instead of all for naught. “All intensive purposes” instead of all intents and purposes. But the greatest eggcorn is doubly ironic: people who say “you’ve got another thing coming” are, in fact, proving the point of the actual expression, “you’ve got another think coming.” We need to be able to slow down and use a second think. Especially when we’re sure what we think is right. (And by the way, at least 50% of the time I have to ask ChatGPT to think again because it’s answers are obviously wrong).


– Take walks. For centuries, thinkers have walked many miles a day — because they had to, because they were bored, because they wanted to escape the putrid cities they lived in, because they wanted to get their blood flowing. In the process, they discovered an important side-effect: it cleared their minds and made them better thinkers. Tesla discovered the rotating magnetic field — one of the most important scientific discoveries in modern history — on a walk through a Budapest park in 1882. Hemingway took long walks along the quais in Paris whenever he was stuck and needed to think. Nietzsche — who conceived of Thus Spoke Zarathustra on a long walk — said: “It is only ideas gained from walking that have any worth.” I have never taken a walk without thinking, after, “I am so glad I did that.”


– Embrace contradiction. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” The world is complicated, ambiguous, paradoxical. To make sense of it, you must be able to balance conflicting truths.. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” The world is complicated, ambiguous, paradoxical. To make sense of it, you must be able to balance conflicting truths.


– But don’t confuse complexity with nonsense. Stupid people are especially good at having a bunch of contradictory thoughts in their head at once. So the first-rate mind Fitzgerald described isn’t just about tolerating contradiction — it’s really about the ability to examine and interrogate it. It’s asking, Does this actually make sense?


– Go to first principles. Aristotle taught that one must go to the origins of things, go all the way to the primary truth of the matter, instead of just accepting common observation or belief. Don’t just blindly accept what everyone else seems to say or believe. Go to first principles. Instead of engaging with an issue from a headline, a tweet, or a take, go to the beginning. Break things down and build them back up. Put every idea to the test, the Stoics said. The good thinker approaches things with a fresh set of eyes and an open mind.


– Think for yourself. Generally, people just do what other people are doing and want what other people want and think what other people think. This was the insight of the philosopher René Girard, who coined the theory of mimetic desire. He believed that since we don’t know what we want, we end up being drawn — subconsciously or overtly — to what others want. We don’t think for ourselves, we follow tradition or the crowd.


– Don’t be contrarian for contrarian’s sake. Peter Thiel, widely considered a “contrarian,” (and a big fan of Girard) once told me that being a contrarian is actually a bad way to go. You can’t just take what everyone else thinks and put a minus sign in front of it. That’s not thinking for yourself. So in fact, if you find yourself constantly in opposition to everyone and everything (or most consensuses) that’s probably a sign you’re not doing much thinking. You’re just being reactionary.


– Ask good questions. When Isidor Rabi came home from school each day, his mother didn’t ask about grades or tests. “Izzy,” she would say, “did you ask a good question today?” This doesn’t seem like much, and yet it is everything. After all, questions drive discovery. The habit of asking questions turned Rabi into one of the greatest physicists of his time — a Nobel Prize winner whose work led to the invention of the MRI. Questions are the key not just to knowledge but to success, discovery, and mastery. They’re how we learn and how we get better. And they don’t have to be brilliant, probing, or incisive. They can be simple: “What do you mean?” They can be inquisitive: “How does that work?” They can aim for clarity: “Sorry, I didn’t understand, can you explain it another way?” The point is to stay curious. To never stop asking questions.


– Watch your information diet. When I’m not feeling great physically — tired, irritable, sluggish — usually it’s because I’m eating poorly. In the same way, when I feel mentally scattered and distracted — I know it’s time to focus on cleaning up my information diet. In programming, there’s a saying: “garbage in, garbage out.” Aim to let in the opposite of garbage. Because that leads to the opposite of garbage coming out.


– Go deep. I thought I knew a lot about Lincoln. I’d read biographies, watched documentaries, interviewed scholars, visited the sites. I’d even written about him in my books. So when I sat down to write about him in Part III of Wisdom Takes Work, I thought I was set. I wasn’t even close. So I went deeper. I read Hay and Nicolay. Doris Kearns Goodwin’s 944-page Team of Rivals. Michael Gerhardt’s 496-page book on Lincoln’s mentors. David S. Reynolds’s 1088-page Abe. David Herbert Donald’s 720-page Lincoln. Garry Wills’s Pulitzer Prize-winning book on the Gettysburg Address. I spoke with the documentarian Ken Burns about him, and Doris too. I read Lincoln’s letters and speeches. I went, multiple times while writing the book, to the Lincoln Memorial. In the end, I spent hundreds of hours reading thousands and thousands of pages on the man. Basically, I “dug deeply,” as Lincoln’s law partner once said of Lincoln’s own approach to learning, in order to get to the “nub” of a subject. This is a skill you need. Whether you’re an author, politician, lawyer, entrepreneur, scientist, educator, parent — you have to be able to pursue an idea, a question, a thread of curiosity until you’ve gotten to the nub and wrapped your head completely around it.


– Don’t just read, re-read. A lot of people read, not enough people re-read. Don’t just read books, re-read books. There’s a great line the Stoics loved — that we never step in the same river twice. The books don’t change, but you do.


– Seek out people who disagree with you. In 1961, the Navy sent Commander James Stockdale to Stanford to study Marxist theory. Not criticisms of Marxism — primary sources. Marx. Lenin. The works. His parents had taught him: you can’t compete against something you don’t understand. A few years later, Stockdale was shot down over North Vietnam and spent seven years being tortured in the Hanoi Hilton. His knowledge of Marxism proved essential — he understood the ideology better than his interrogators did. Seneca said we should read dangerous ideas “like a spy in the enemy’s camp.”


– Ego is the enemy. Epictetus reminds us that “it’s impossible to learn that which you think you already know.” The physicist John Wheeler said that “as our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance.” Conceitedness is the primary impediment to wisdom. That’s something I often find with AI, its quickness and confidence in its answers…which are laughably wrong. If you want to stay humble, focus on all that you still don’t know. After all, isn’t that the Socratic method?


– Beware the Gell-Mann amnesia effect. Named after the Nobel Prize-winning physicist Murray Gell-Mann, the Gell-Mann amnesia effect is the term for a familiar experience: You read an article about something you know well, and you recognize that it’s full of errors, it’s missing context, it’s grossly oversimplifying things. You can’t believe something so bad got published. Then you turn to an article on something you know little about — foreign policy, international affairs, the economy, pop culture — and believe every word. It’s not just that the media exaggerates and sensationalizes. It’s actually worse: Most of the time they don’t even know what they’re talking about. The same goes for AI, which is trained on many of those error-filled sources. I’ve had ChatGPT confidently butcher things I know well. Why would I unquestioningly trust it on things I don’t? The problem is we don’t know what we don’t know. Which means we don’t know when we’re being fooled.


– Be flexible. A colleague of Churchill once observed that Churchill “venerated tradition but ridiculed convention.” The past was important, but it was not a prison. The old ways — what the Romans called the mos maiorum — were important but not to be mistaken as perfect. Plenty of people have been buried in coffins of their own making. Before their time too. Because they couldn’t understand that “the way they’d always done things” wasn’t working anymore. Or that “the way they were raised” wasn’t acceptable anymore. We must cultivate the capacity for change, for flexibility and adaptability. Continuously, constantly.


– Empty the cup. There is an old Zen story about a master who receives a student for tea. As the visitor extends their cup, the master pours…and pours, and pours. The cup begins to overflow. Finally, the student says something: “Stop! The cup is full. It can hold no more.” “Yes,” the master replies. “And your mind is like this cup, full of opinions and speculations. How am I to show you Zen unless you empty your cup?” This is a message about the perils of ego, obviously. It’s a message about keeping an open mind. Because the cup also does not have to be full to cause problems. “If this vessel is not clean,” the Roman poet Horace said in the first century BC, “then whatever you pour in goes sour.”


– Seek understanding, not trivia. Whenever you’re consuming anything, don’t just try to find random pieces of information. What’s the point of that? The point is to understand, to build a foundation of real, true wisdom — that you can turn to and apply in your actual life. On the literary snobs who speculate for hours about whether The Iliad or The Odyssey was written first, or who the real author was (a debate that rages on today), Seneca said, “Far too many good brains have been afflicted by the pointless enthusiasm for useless knowledge.”


– Write to think right. Peter Burke, one of Montaigne’s biographers, believed that Montaigne’s essays were precisely that, a man’s “attempt to catch himself in the act of thinking.” Montaigne said that he wrote as though he was speaking to another person. But that doesn’t mean his essays were casual or off the cuff. Montaigne had to sit and really think — the act of his thoughts flowing from his brain, down his arm, through his pen, and onto the page was a process by which much reflection was transcribed, and, since he continued to edit his writing until the day he died, refined. Only a fool goes with their first thought. A wise person takes time to contemplate.


– Create a second brain — a collection of ideas, quotes, observations, and information gathered over time. As Seneca wrote: “We should hunt out the helpful pieces of teaching and the spirited and noble-minded sayings which are capable of immediate practical application — not far far-fetched or archaic expressions or extravagant metaphors and figures of speech — and learn them so well that words become works.” (Here’s a video on my method).


– Cultivate empathy. Empathy is as much a practical skill as it is a moral one. If you don’t have the ability to think about what other people think about this or that situation, to imagine how something looks from someone else’s perspective, then you have a very limited view of reality.


– Look at the fish. When Samuel Scudder interviewed for a job with the great Harvard biologist Louis Agassiz in 1864, Agassiz placed a dead fish on a tray in front of him. “Look at the fish,” said, and then he left the room. Scudder picked it up, turned it over, counted the scales, and drew it. When Agassiz returned, he was unimpressed. “You have not looked very carefully,” he said. “You haven’t even seen one of the most conspicuous features of the animal, which is as plainly before your eyes as the fish itself; look again, look again!” This went on for three days. “Look, look, look,” Agassiz would say. What did Scudder ultimately discover about the fish? Nothing. It wasn’t about the fish. It was about focus — looking long enough and hard enough to truly see what’s in front of you. This is the skill that good, clear, deep thinking depends on.


– Find your scene. “Tell me who you consort with,” Goethe said, “and I will tell you who you are.” You need to find a scene that challenges you, inspires you, exposes you to new ideas, holds you accountable, and pushes you beyond your limits. Put yourself in rooms where you’re the least knowledgeable person. Observe. Ask questions. That uncomfortable feeling when your assumptions are challenged? Seek it out. Let it humble you.


– Assemble a board of directors. It’s important to have a mentor. It’s important to have a scene. But at the highest levels, we must develop a board of directors — people who advise and consult, who check and even correct you. This isn’t a formality but an essential practice to always be learning and improving. Whose collective experiences are you drawing on? Who in your life can tell you that you’re wrong? That you’re being an idiot? We need other voices around us. We need help. We need to be able to yield. Only a fool declines this priceless resource.


– Beware your inner child. Where do your own emotional patterns get in the way of clear thinking? When you’re hurt or betrayed or unexpectedly challenged, pay attention to how you react. Notice the “age” of that reaction. Is it mature, measured, proportional? Or does it feel more like a wounded eight-year-old lashing out? That’s your inner child — the pain you still carry from early experiences, hijacking your adult mind. Good thinking requires the ability to recognize when your inner child has taken the wheel. This is another benefit of having a board of directors — they can serve as parents to our inner child.


– Keep your identity small. This is a rule from the great Paul Graham. His point was that the more you identify with things — being a member of a certain political party, being seen as smart, being seen as someone who drives a fancy car or someone who belongs to this club or that ideology — the harder it is for you to change your mind or entertain new points of view. Stay a free agent!


– Do the work. In Wisdom Takes Work, I quote Seneca, “No man was ever wise by chance.We must get it ourselves. We cannot delegate it to someone or something else. There is no technology that can do it for you. There is no app. There is no prompt, no shortcut or summary or step-by-step formula. There is no LLM that can spit it out in thirty seconds.


Source: Ryan Holiday

https://ryanholiday.medium.com/26-rules-to-be-a-better-thinker-in-2026-6393399aad3d

Saturday, January 31, 2026

強制安全帶,問題意識何在?立法議會在立法懲罰之前有考慮過嗎?

 

圖一、希臘神話中,奧德修斯射穿十二斧眼。圖片來源:網絡

強制安全帶的法例昨日停止執行了。安全帶的鬧劇,如大埔宏福苑的大火災一樣,都是連串的不利因素,由於官員層層把關疏忽,這些不利因素串聯起來,形成災難。宏福苑是防火圍網不及格、窗口用發泡膠圍封、七座大廈一齊做外牆裝修、冬天風高物燥、風向有利大火傳播、防火警鐘關閉及消防水喉停水(消防署拒絕深圳救兵等因素不算入),七個因素串聯,才會釀成大火災。假如,當日風向是由山吹向海,只有一兩座大廈遭殃。

這就好似荷馬的希臘史詩《奧德賽》(Homer's The Odyssey)在《奧德賽》中,奧德修斯(Odysseus)離開以色加(Ithaca)太久,回來的時候門衛都辨認不到,唯有射術來證明自己是國王。他拉弓射箭,射穿十二把斧頭的孔來證明自己是國王。

安全帶法例也是行政災難,好彩只是引起阿伯打架和安全帶困乘客兩件小事,沒有釀成大災。這行政災難要貫串這些因素才可以形成:律政署起草法例,提交立法會審議的時候,職員並未講清楚執行日期及執行限制是在二〇二六年一月二十五日或之後的新登記巴士,即是說,法例初期只是備用,可以宣傳但不必執行。這是必須向議會講解清楚的。其次,議員審議漫不經心。其三,法例生效之前政府要宣傳,但負責宣傳的部門並未有法律顧問去審閱法例。其四、宣傳之後,未有傳媒或關注團體去審閱法例。其五,法例生效之後,群情洶湧,政府高官振振有詞,部門上下無人去審閱法例。五個因素貫串起來,才發生這宗鬧劇。

政府和傳媒全班人好似被鬼迷。這與宏福苑大火災的情況相似,是香港失運的徵兆。

圖二、巴士陳伯的煩惱。圖片來源:網上,TVB新聞截圖

安全帶事件,我日前在本欄寫了法學原則,之後老政客陳婉嫻和前議員江玉歡連環說破此法例。


今日中午,我在面書寫了鹹濕論政的帖文,嘲諷一下:

香港強制巴士乘客戴安全帶的法例其實沒有錯,法例規定只能在二〇二六年一月二十五日或之後登記的新巴士。政府在草擬法例的時候是考慮到現行的巴士是不適宜強制配戴安全帶的,因為巴士必須預留空間給予乘客活動,才可以強制執行,否則就會插入其他乘客不方便但或者也很期待被插入的地方。而靠窗的乘客如要落車,必須先請側邊乘客鬆開安全帶,前面也要預留空間,否則很容易觀音坐蓮,起碼玩它幾分鐘,趕不及落車。

綁了安全帶,打鐘落車有困難,故此新巴士必須將鐘安裝在前面椅背,不必站立就可以打鐘。

此外,也要顧及社會公義:政府立例不能忽略企位乘客的安全而不給予保障,故此預設的新登記巴士,必定是禁止企位的,也不會有雙層巴士,避免上落樓梯離開安全帶的保護太久。

一句話:為了執行新法例,巴士公司必須重新訂製為此目標而建造(purpose-built)的新巴士!模樣類似豪華版的、加大的小巴,四十座位以內。錢從何來?當然是政府巨資補貼。巴士的載客量減少了,巴士公司的收入減少,除了加價之外,也要政府補貼票價。

如此周到的法例的立法原意,居然沒被議員留意,也沒被政府推廣的人留意,居然埋沒了。你說可惜不可惜?


附錄:新聞提要

巴士強制配帶安全帶的新法規爭議不斷,前立法會議員江玉歡於一月二十九日晚上發文,質疑根據法例的行文,巴士強制配帶安全帶的罰則,只適於今年 1 月 25 日、即法例生效後才首次登記的巴士,根本不適用於絕大部分現行的巴士。

運輸及物流局長陳美寶一月三十日下午見記者,承認徵詢律政司法律意見後,安全帶法例法律條文「技術上不足」,「未能完全反映立法原意」,為「清晰起見」,會盡快安排首先刪除有關條文,「即係話,令目前唔會有法定要求乘客喺乘客專營巴士上邊配帶安全帶。」

陳美寶又指,會在完善相關法律條文後,徵詢立法會再推出。

陳美寶整個見記者的過程約十分鐘,但她多次被問到會否為失誤致歉均無回應,至於她所指會「盡快」刪除條文即需時多欠,她都無回應。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/ba-shi-quan-dai-149563559

Thursday, January 29, 2026

強制安全帶,問題意識何在?立法議會在立法懲罰之前有考慮過嗎?

 


為什麼香港土地公陳雲這次不極力反對巴士強制戴安全帶?此乃是次安全帶爭議之中,最為神秘的地方!

去年,我曾經一力反對過膠袋徵費,拍片三次及寫公開帖文十幾次,並得到全國僑聯的前領導加入反對陣營而令事情告吹。今年一月二十五日,強制安全帶來了,我除了傳閱一些嘲諷的帖文和新聞,並無公開大力反對。原因有二:首先,我不想政府又針對我。其次,我知道此法無法執行。膠袋徵費是籌劃了用政府垃圾袋來執行的,故此必須反對。強制戴安全帶,需要大量執法人員來巡查,阻礙巴士運行,故此執法力量不大。法不治眾之下,人民會鬆懈對待,結果變成自願戴安全帶。

為了與大家鍛煉一下腦筋,這裡不妨與各位一齊思考一下,政府憑什麼強制巴士乘客戴安全帶,否則罰款五千元及監禁三個月(最高刑罰)?


強制佩戴安全帶的公義原則及法學考慮


假若我在議會,遇到這種立法,我思考的法學原則如下:

一、首先,要調查外地和香港的實際情況。目前各地的安全帶強制都是限於跨境巴士,有企位的市內巴士是自願戴上安全帶(如設有)而並非強制。香港原先也是限於無企位的小巴才強制佩戴。各國的理由是跨境巴士容易發生意外,故此強制安全帶,但罰則並無香港之重。

二、此事的問題意識(problematics)在於,安全帶是保障有座位的乘客,那邊沒座位的企位乘客,政府是否放棄保護,各安天命呢?有否座位,視乎上站的地點和時間,那麼於不利的地點和不利的時間上車的人,是否放棄保護呢?這就是安全帶強制與否最深刻的公義原則:那就是如果政府要保護乘客,就全部一體保護,不能放棄企位的乘客。基於這潛藏的法學原則(各地政府未必這樣辯論過而我相信是無),各地的市內巴士只會鼓勵戴安全帶而不能立法強制。故此,我在去年十月二十五日於面書公開呼籲一次,如果要強制安全帶,巴士必須廢除企位!(帖文見本文附錄)當然,我不會將法學的道理講出來!這是極為昂貴的學術機密。

安全帶的問題,討論完畢。

(從上述的討論,大家會知道,為何深層國家絕對不會允許陳雲進入立法議會,因為我會提升民智,不利於豪強和財閥剝削勞苦大眾。我在辯論採用的道理,不限於階級鬥爭,而是源自古希臘邏輯學的、普遍性的理性。)


附錄:陳雲呼籲取消巴士企位的公開帖文

陳雲:星期日講道。巴士要扣安全帶之後,大大增加了皮膚、汗液和口涎的傳染病傳播的機會。小巴也是。有無醫學團體夠膽——我說是夠膽!!!!!!!!!!——去化驗一下這些公用交通工具的安全帶的含菌量和(如有)消毒情況所帶來的化學感染?

是哪一屆立法會通過這些法例的?當然估計是有泛民在內的一屆。

為什麼立法不是限制在危險座位(如前面沒有座位防護有事直接飛出)而是遍及所有座位呢?貪方便嗎?或預設了只是危險座位的乘客知機自己扣安全帶而其他可以隨意選擇嗎?

此外,為了安全,請立法取消巴士的企位,好似小巴那樣,坐夠人就開車!

不超度。

(閱讀智力門檻:智人)


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/qiang-zhi-quan-149390337


[2] 2025-10-26 11:54 https://www.facebook.com/wan.chin.75/posts/pfbid0zyddDyVN9ehvtX2foNrg7FduRyr6qg2qzrAmRgsSCphsLWDAZ68QUV95seBce81jl

Tuesday, January 06, 2026

東征西怨與簞食壺漿:評美國擄走委內瑞拉總統之是非

星期二深夜講道,評委內瑞拉,說春秋大義!有人說,特朗普攻入委內瑞拉,擄走馬杜羅,是違反國際法,破壞主權,如此,則普京在二〇二二年春天攻入基輔也是可以諒解云云。然則,此事在孔孟的春秋戰國,如何看待?


首先,看事實,普京攻入基輔,烏克蘭百姓有否上街跳舞慶祝?沒有。反之,俄軍攻入烏克蘭遇到的不是烏克蘭人民夾道歡迎,而是交相唾罵,烏克蘭阿婆將向日葵種子塞入俄國士兵衣袋,希望他能做到唯一一件好事:在他於烏克蘭戰場成為屍體之後,可以長出一株株向日葵。現在,特朗普攻入委內瑞拉,不單是委內瑞拉的人慶祝,英國也有人說,為什麼不擄走我們的首相Starmer?

至於委內瑞拉這些殘暴統治、通脹飛起、人民四處流竄逃命的失敗國家,其主權又是什麼回事呢?古人謂之:國將不國!


我舉出兩條古書,給大家看看孔孟之道。首先是東征西怨,其次是簞食壺漿。在我讀中學的香港英治時代,這是必須讀過的兩則古文或成語故事。


東征西怨:出兵征討東方,而西方的百姓埋怨不先來解救自己。語出《書經.仲虺之誥》:「乃葛伯仇餉,初征自葛,東征西夷怨,南征北狄怨。曰:『奚獨後予。』」形容人民對仁義之師的盼望。商湯王初次征伐葛伯,討伐東方異族,西方夷人就埋怨不先去救他們;征伐南方狄人,東方夷人也抱怨不先去救他們,說:「為什麼只留下我們?」你以為這是古書將商湯王的仁政浪漫化?你現在就親眼看到實例!窮國老百姓見到特朗普,都說Sir, this way.


簞食壺漿,以迎王師:以簞盛食,以壺盛漿來迎王師。指軍隊受到人民的擁護與愛戴,紛紛慰勞犒賞。語出《孟子.梁惠王下》:齊人伐燕,勝之。宣王問曰:「或謂寡人勿取,或謂寡人取之。以萬乘之國伐萬乘之國,五旬而舉之,人力不至於此。不取,必有天殃。取之,何如?」孟子對曰:「取之而燕民悅,則取之。古之人有行之者,武王是也。取之而燕民不悅,則勿取。古之人有行之者,文王是也。以萬乘之國伐萬乘之國,簞食壺漿,以迎王師,豈有它哉?避水火也。如水益深,如火益熱,亦運而已矣。」

語譯:齊國攻打燕國並取得勝利後,齊宣王詢問孟子:「有人說我不該佔領燕國,有人說應該佔領。我以強國攻打強國,只用了五十天就拿下,這不可能只是人力辦到的,不佔領恐怕會招致天譴。如果佔領,怎麼樣呢?」

孟子回答:「如果你佔領之後,燕國百姓感到歡喜,那就佔領,古人中有這麼做的,如武王。如果佔領而燕國百姓不悅,那就不要佔領,古人中也有這樣的,如文王。像這樣一個大國攻打另一大國,結果百姓端著飯食與水來迎接軍隊,這不是別的原因,而是因為他們要逃避暴政之苦。如果你帶去的不是解救,而是更嚴重的壓迫,那麼百姓就會像逃避水火一樣地逃離,政權也就會隨之覆滅。」


孔孟之道,是士大夫的常理,也是老百姓的常理。新課程不要背誦成語故事,不讀《孟子》,就是要下一代不懂得常理,只懂得國際法


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/dong-zheng-xi-yu-147558590

https://www.facebook.com/wan.chin.75/posts/pfbid04VqsV8Z4SiBFE9QUDqYZoPD8mURxZawNhBhqu38m7fJXC2GNbhGDDoyKJUaGN1iBl

Monday, January 05, 2026

特朗普在軍事上施展矩陣戰術,伊朗、俄國有排驚,中共也寢食難安

 

圖一:美軍突襲委內瑞拉,擄走總統馬杜羅夫婦後,特朗普即點名墨西哥、哥倫比亞與古巴威脅美國安全,又放話美國絕對需要格陵蘭島。(圖片來源:businessfocus,星島頭條,New York Post)

特朗普的矩陣戰術是政治上的聯動效應(linkage effect)利用多個政治和經濟的據點來引發效果。要執行矩陣戰術,要有一個行動大綱領,之後分出幾個日程,歸結到大綱領。遇到障礙就繞過去,從其他據點來對付那個障礙。例如是次特朗普突襲委內瑞拉,是因為普京不答應停火,特朗普唯有先做其他預備成熟的小事情,逐個火頭燒着,產生聯動效應,最終燒到普京,逼他以更低的條件答應停火。普京如果一直捱着,最終可能逼到中共在一兩年內攻台,被美國收拾。這是一場好驚險的博弈!

關稅戰、貿易制裁只是常規的、持續的壓力,最終的解決,仍是要用戰爭的鐵拳!大家還記得我寫過的哈德遜研究所的中共接收計劃嗎?文化沙龍也談過。很多人以為是天馬行空,但是次突襲委內瑞拉及接管該國,就看到美國是講得出、做得到的,委內瑞拉的中共防衛武器,雷達系統之類,在美軍突襲的考驗下,也全盤敗北,甚至馬杜羅聲稱無法侵入的華為手機,更協助了美國軍隊的定位追踪。


赤馬紅羊第一炮

踏入二〇二六年,赤馬紅羊第一道火不在台海或中日之間點燃,而是南美。美軍一月二日突襲委內瑞拉,生擒總統馬杜羅夫婦,隨後美國總統特朗普即點名墨西哥、哥倫比亞與古巴威脅美國安全;然後在空軍一號上向隨行記者密切關注伊朗局勢,若當局殺害示威者將遭受重創;又美國絕對需要格陵蘭島。

外界認為這是印證去年底華府的《國家安全戰略》當中,列明會實行特朗普式門羅主義。中國與及多個南美洲國家美方這樣擄走馬杜羅違反國際法,西方陣營當中,只有歐盟主席馮德萊恩即時表態,公開支持委內瑞拉和平民主過渡。烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基則趁機發聲明,暗示美國應該考慮逮捕俄羅斯總統普京:「如果能夠對付這樣的獨裁者,那麼美國就知道下一步該怎麼做了。」

雖然特朗普在一月三日的記者會上詳細解釋這次行動的正當性,列舉馬杜羅政權透過毒品走私、派遣幫派入境、竊取美國石油公司資產,以及在西半球引入敵對勢力威脅美國;又解釋美國暫時接管委內瑞拉,是因為如果美國立即撤走,由其他人接管,該國或重蹈過去數十年的覆轍;他不願冒險讓另一個不把委內瑞拉人民利益放在心上的人掌權,不過我的結論只有四字:矩陣戰術項莊舞劍,意在沛公,特朗普要打的大老,目前恐怕是寢食難安。


從產油大國到逾百倍通脹,委內瑞拉親中之路

圖二:委內瑞拉是南美洲產油大國,人均GDP曾踞全球第四,但全國經濟仰賴賣油收入,導致通脹率受油價波動影響,經濟迅速衰退。(圖片來源:yahoo,香港01)

先談一下委內瑞拉這個南美洲產油大國(產的是重油,提煉不及阿拉伯國家的輕油那麼容易,但價錢便宜,中共輸入很多。)。他們的人均GDP曾踞全球第四,但一九七〇年代起把石油產業國有化,全國經濟仰賴賣油收入,導致通脹率受油價波動影響,從一九七八年的7.2%暴漲至一九八九年的81%,必須向外國借錢。

二〇〇〇年起,中國用貸款與直接投資能源、家電、汽車,國防系統等來換取委內瑞拉石油,至今總額六百億美元;同時委內瑞拉亦逐漸疏遠歐美。馬杜羅二〇一四年上台後,國際油價從每桶一百一十五美元一直跌至二〇一六年二月的卅五美元,委內瑞拉經濟迅速衰退,通脹率達800%,全國糧食短缺、治安惡化。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計該國今年通脹率270%,明年更飆升至685%;當地九成民眾處於貧窮線以下,過去十三年逾七百萬人為生計出逃。


伊朗全國爆發騷亂,最高領袖哈米尼傳出逃俄國

至於伊朗,長期遭西方國家嚴厲制裁,令經濟長年蕭條、失業率與通脹高企。其後加入了中國倡儀的金磚國家,二〇二二年起更以人民幣計價,把九成石油賣給中國來換取中國車、消費品、電子產品等軍民兩用的物資。不過近期伊朗貨幣里亞爾(Rial)嚴重貶值、全國出現四十年來最嚴重乾旱,糧食難以自給自足,民怨沸騰;去年底起全國爆發騷亂,迄今至少十五死逾六百人被捕。

圖三:伊朗去年底起因貨幣大貶值引發全國騷亂,據報最高領袖哈米尼計劃,一旦局勢失控他將逃到俄羅斯。(圖片來源:AP,FTVNEWS)

伊朗最高領袖哈米尼(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)示威者是外國傭兵,下令安全部隊重挫對方氣焰。生擒馬杜羅後,華府國務院即在波斯語社交帳戶發布一段十二秒的短片,內容是戰爭部長赫格塞斯的發言,並附有波斯語字幕:「馬杜羅曾有機會,就像伊朗也有機會一樣,直到機會消失,他也失去了機會。他做了一些事,並承擔了後果。」外界認為是華府特意發放給哈米尼看的。

特朗普在空軍一號上向隨行記者「我們密切關注伊朗局勢。如果他們像過去那樣殺害示威者,他們將遭受重創。」英媒《泰晤士報》則引述情報稱哈米尼早有計劃,一旦伊朗局勢失控、軍隊叛逃,他將流亡俄羅斯。若然屬實,伊朗政教合一的政治體制或告終。


特朗普回朝再施矩陣戰術,一石二鳥對付中俄


圖四:中美新冷戰下,委內瑞拉和伊朗這種失敗國家對特朗普來說,相當有利用價值。(圖片來源:yahoo財經,香港01)


委內瑞拉伊朗的共通點是,兩者都是產油國被美國點名制裁與中俄非常友好加入了一帶一路倡議,而且兩國經濟衰退國家陷入崩潰邊緣。中美新冷戰下,這種失敗國家對特朗普來說都相當有利用價值,足以拿來隔山打牛他把火頭逐一燒着,使之產生聯動效應,拿來對付不願結束俄烏戰爭的俄羅斯,最終普京只能以更低的條件答應停火。同時借力打力,若普京一直捱着,即順勢拖累中共,來個一石二鳥。

事實上,目前委內瑞拉尚有過百億美元貸款未以石油方式歸還中國,卻已被美國暫時托管,加上特朗普已表明美國大型石油公司、全球最大的石油公司,將投資數十億美元來修復委當地的相關設施來開採石油,中國那筆錢相信覆水難收。更禍不單行的是,外媒爆料,已有數十個美國投資者計劃今年三月到委內瑞拉考察,看來美資好快取代當地中資,可謂順道幫了美國經濟一把。


附錄:美軍公開生擒委內瑞拉總統細節

二〇二六年一月三日美國總統特朗普在白宮召開記者會,宣布美軍在一日前突擊委內瑞拉,並已活捉總統馬杜羅(Nicolas Maduro)與太太弗洛雷斯(Cilia Flores);行動中沒有美軍陣亡,也沒有損失軍事設備。他列舉了馬杜羅政權如何威脅美國,包括毒品走私、派遣幫派入境、竊取美國石油資產,以及在西半球引入敵對勢力;他在會上宣布美國暫時管理委內瑞拉,直到該國能夠進行「安全、適當且審慎的權力移交」。

這次行動美方歷時數月策劃,代號「絕對決心」(Operation Absolute Resolve)。中情局一方面掌握馬杜羅作息時間,與線人裏應外合;同時美軍搭建了馬杜羅的安全屋來反覆演練。期間他們曾多次試圖發動攻擊,包括在剛過去的聖誕節等,但都因天氣不佳而臨時叫停。最終美軍在一月二日深夜十時拍板,空襲委內瑞拉首都卡拉卡斯(Caracas)並癱瘓防空系統之後,美軍直升機乘機攻入馬杜羅官邸捉人。

一直有傳今屆諾貝爾和平獎得主委內瑞拉反對派領袖馬查多(Maria Corina Machado)將接任總統一職,不過目前仍是未知數,因為該國暫時由馬杜羅副手羅德里格斯(James Rodríguez)代任總統。特朗普警告羅德里格斯若不合作,她將付上比馬杜羅更沉重的代價;羅德里格斯則發公開信邀請美國合作制定國家發展策略,強調希望享有和平。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/te-lang-pu-zai-e-147468991

Saturday, January 03, 2026

關於委內瑞拉:你應當瞭解的五件事

華盛頓與加拉加斯之間的衝突正劇烈升級。美國顯然已對委內瑞拉境內目標發動攻擊。儘管衝突表面上與禁毒有關,但深層原因遠不止於此。

委內瑞拉加拉加斯。據稱美國空襲後,高速公路幾乎空無一人
圖片來源: Juan Barreto/AFP


(德國之聲中文網)美國顯然已對委內瑞拉境內目標實施了軍事打擊,這標誌著雙方衝突的嚴重升級。自去年9月以來,美軍已在加勒比海和太平洋海域多次攔截並攻擊據稱載有毒品的船隻。以下是關於委內瑞拉局勢的五個核心背景:


委內瑞拉一直由左翼威權領導人尼古拉斯‧馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)執掌
圖片來源: Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo/dpa/picture alliance

1. 威權主義統治

自2013年以來,委內瑞拉一直由左翼威權領導人尼古拉斯‧馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)執掌。在去年充滿舞弊爭議的選舉後,馬杜羅宣誓就職,任期將延長至2031年。國際組織和人權活動人士指責馬杜羅政府鎮壓異見人士、非法逮捕反對派、實施酷刑和暴力。儘管面臨大規模抗議,馬杜羅依然地位穩固,這主要得益於軍方對其保持效忠。

今年,委內瑞拉反對派領袖瑪麗亞‧科裡納‧馬查多(María Corina Machado)因「為推動獨裁向民主的公正和平轉型而鬥爭」被授予諾貝爾和平獎。然而,由於身陷叛國罪調查並隱居地下長達一年,她在秘密離境後,直到奧斯陸頒獎禮結束數小時才抵達現場。委內瑞拉檢方已將其列為逃犯。若她嘗試回國,將面臨被捕或被禁止入境的嚴厲後果。


受制於制裁、國營石油公司(PDVSA)的管理不善及貪腐,該國目前日產量僅約100萬桶,遠低於20年前的近300萬桶
圖片來源: Yuri Cortez/AFP

2. 全球最大的石油儲量

據估計,委內瑞拉擁有3030億桶石油儲量,位居世界第一。這些儲量多為重質原油,需要特殊技術進行開采和精煉。儘管資源驚人,但受制於制裁、國營石油公司(PDVSA)的管理不善及貪腐,該國目前日產量僅約100萬桶,遠低於20年前的近300萬桶。今年起,美國石油巨頭雪佛龍(Chevron)已恢復在委業務。

12月中旬,美軍強行登上一艘委內瑞拉油輪,令局勢進一步惡化。華盛頓辯稱該船屬於支持外國恐怖組織的非法運輸網路;加拉加斯則譴責美方實施了「國際海盜行為」。


委內瑞拉86%的家庭生活在貧困線以下
圖片來源: Juan Carlos Hernandez/ZUMA Wire/imago images

3. 極度貧困

儘管擁有石油、黃金和稀土等豐富資源,委內瑞拉卻深陷極端貧困。根據委內瑞拉金融觀察站(OVF)的報告,該國86%的家庭生活在貧困線以下。平均家庭月收入僅為231美元,而一個家庭的基本食品開支則需391美元。許多家庭完全依賴海外親屬的匯款度日。


聯合國數據顯示,已有790萬委內瑞拉人離開家鄉,約佔總人口的四分之一。
圖片來源: Herika Martinez/AFP/Getty Images

4. 難民危機

嚴重的經濟危機疊加國家鎮壓,引發了大規模移民潮。大量高素質勞動力早已流失。聯合國數據顯示,已有790萬委內瑞拉人離開家鄉,約佔總人口的四分之一。大多數移民滯留在鄰近的拉美國家,但也有許多人前往美國或歐洲尋求生機。今年,歐盟接收的難民申請者中,委內瑞拉人首次位居首位。


中國是委內瑞拉的關鍵盟友之一
圖片來源: picture-alliance/Xinhua/Y. Dawei

5. 與美國勁敵結盟

馬杜羅將自己塑造成在美國「後院」反抗「洋基帝國主義」的鬥士。他常年抨擊帝國主義,將委內瑞拉描繪成社會主義樣板。古巴和尼加拉瓜的左翼政府是其堅定支持者,據稱古巴特工在協助馬杜羅維持軍隊紀律方面發揮了作用。此外,俄羅斯、中國和伊朗也是委內瑞拉的關鍵盟友。


Source: 德聞(德聞是德國之聲中文網集體筆名之一。)X: @dw_chinese

Saturday, December 27, 2025

我從西學畢業了!評論哈貝馬斯在二〇二二年認為Covid封城有合法性

 

圖一、哈貝馬斯是風靡一代的思想家,這是他在一九六九年於法蘭克福大學哲學系的大講堂。圖片來源

在新冠疫情期間,德國思想家、社會學家哈貝馬斯贊同德國採取非常時期做法,限制公民自由。這是大錯特錯!因為他弄錯了基本事實:新冠疫情並非流行疫病,而只是政治把戲:政府玩弄死亡的數字遊戲和遮蓋疫情期間的死亡真相。哈貝馬斯在大部分論題是深思熟慮的(例如他最近抨擊美國的數碼極權。見本欄文章:歐盟犯錯誤,美國行錯路?哲學大師、歐盟理論家哈貝馬斯抨擊美國民主陷落,美國數碼威權主義抬頭 Posted on Apr 18, 2025 - 11:18 PM https://www.patreon.com/posts/126938996),但在兩個論題是錯到要命,第一個是他主張歐盟,第二個是他支持政府採取非常措施來封城及強制保持社交距離。於此兩個論題,我是反對的,我反對目前的歐盟,認為歐盟去到歐共體的狀態就要停止,不能推行歐洲貨幣及統一經濟及國防外交政策。歐盟應該留在鬆散邦聯狀態,而不是進展到緊密聯邦狀態。至於疫情,我一開始就從政治、經濟及醫學上,三方面拆穿它。我是世界上最早全面拆穿新冠疫情的社交媒體人,這個各位讀者都知道。

哈貝馬斯是我一直崇拜的人,但我畢業了,我勝於老師,因為哈貝馬斯連自己國家——德國的醫學評論也不理會,不知道或假裝不知道疫情是假扮的。在疫情爆發的時候,德國的醫學界是最早反對的,其次是美國、日本和印度。

哈貝馬斯支持政府的論點,在他二〇二一年九月的文章發表,題目是Corona und der Schutz des Lebens. Zur Grundrechtsdebatte in der pandemischen Ausnahmesituation (英譯:Corona and the protection of life. On the fundamental rights debate in the pandemic emergency situation;漢譯:新冠疫病與生命保障。關於流行疫病危難時期的基本權利辯論)。他認為德國的憲法——《基本法》(德文Grundgestz)賦予公民自由,但也有條文責成國家要保障公民的生命權和肉體完整的權,而當數量上可以證實某種疫病將殺害大量公民的時候,國家有權限制公民自由來保障公民。公民自由和限制自由來保障生命是不對稱的權利,而德國並無緊急法,故此國家有權宣布進入緊急狀態或非常時期,而這個時期必須是設限的。

哈貝馬斯的推論是對的,但他的基本假設卻是錯的:根本無疫病,何來緊急狀態?要確定疫病與否,頗為簡單:你出街有否見到屍橫遍野?街上是否十室九空?你的親友死絕了沒有?這是最為常識的判斷,也是疫情一開始的時候,我給讀者的最簡單判斷。

思想家不能脫離常識。如果收到政治勢力威迫而要說謊,思想家應該寧願沉默,而不要助紂為虐。說破疫病、說破疫苗,也許會帶來生命危險,但不主動贊成疫病,頂多是學術仕途無運行,不至於丟命吧。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/wo-cong-xi-xue-146781604

Clever / Industrious / Stupid / Lazy

I divide my officers into four classes.

There are clever, industrious, stupid, and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined. 

Some are clever and industrious — their place is the General Staff. 

The next lot are stupid and lazy — they make up 90 percent of every army and are suited to routine duties. 

Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the intellectual clarity and composure necessary for difficult decisions. 

One must beware of anyone who is stupid and industrious — he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will always cause only mischief.

Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/28/clever-lazy/


Source: Michael Dain

https://ai.gopubby.com/the-clever-lazy-revolution-why-ai-will-finally-force-us-to-measure-what-matters-f52f4c79ff05

https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00012327

Thursday, November 27, 2025

好方法,不應被時間沖淡

宏福苑大火的消息傳來,這場火災成為香港有史以來最致命的火災之一。但這不是香港第一次經歷重大火災。

回顧過去,從1918年跑馬地馬場大火的超過600人死亡,到1962年元州街唐樓44死,再到1996年嘉利大廈41死,每一場火災都曾震撼社會。

然而,災難過後留下的不應只有傷痛和遺忘,更重要的是一套有效的檢討機制——如何找出真相、如何問責、如何防止悲劇重演。

在這方面,1996年嘉利大廈火災之後的調查,為香港留下了一個值得傳承的典範。

一場火災 四小組調查

1996年11月20日,佐敦嘉利大廈發生大火,41人喪生,成為香港近代最嚴重的高樓火災之一。

火災發生後,香港並沒有草草收場。消防處與屋宇署迅速成立四個專責小組,從火災原因、大廈結構、逃生方式等不同角度展開調查

但更關鍵的是,時任港督彭定康在災後不足一個月,於12月17日委任胡國興法官為獨立調查委員會主席,要求全面調查大火起因、檢討當局應變措施,並提出防止慘劇重演的建議

這個調查委員會,由胡國興大法官一人做調查工作,再有4位職員支從其他部門抽調行政人員協助處理文件。看似簡約的架構,卻在翌年順利公布調查報告。

不迴避問題的勇氣

嘉利大廈調查報告的價值,在於它沒有迴避任何 inconvenient truth。報告指,電梯更換工程造成的危險環境是火災主因,同時點名批評中藝百貨擅自更改1至3樓的消防梯,作為貨倉及改裝大閘,使大火在低層得以持續並迅速蔓延。

報告也毫不客氣地指出嘉利大廈缺乏自動灑水系統及封閉式的防煙門,工人及住客在電梯工程期間防火意識不足

更難得的是,報告沒有放過政府部門本身。委員會批評多個政府部門在應急方面協調不足,甚至直言「最先到達火場的消防主管領導無方」。這種對內對外都不留情面的檢討態度,正是災後調查最需要的誠實。

但報告不止於批評。它還提出了具體的改善建議,包括要求消防處遇到一級火警時,應派出高級消防隊長級人員出任現場主管,從制度上提升火警現場指揮的專業性。這些建議後來都逐步落實,成為香港消防應急機制改革的重要一步。

系統性問題需要系統性回應

嘉利大廈調查的另一個重要之處,是它沒有將問題局限於單一建築物。報告特別指出,不少同期落成的商業大廈都存在消防設施不足的問題。這種從個案看到系統性漏洞的視野讓調查的意義超越了單一事件,促使整個城市反思建築安全標準

回顧香港的火災歷史,幾乎每一場重大火災都揭示了不同年代的建築安全問題。

1918年跑馬地馬場大火,暴露的是早期公共場所木棚結構的脆弱和人群管理的失控。

1962年元州街唐樓大火,則是戰後唐樓設計缺陷的血淋淋教訓 —— 那座唐樓只有一道樓梯,樓梯又有大量雜物阻塞,當起火後樓梯立刻被烈焰封閉,居民無法逃生,部分人從樓宇跳下。

2008年旺角嘉禾大廈夾層夜店起火、2011年旺角花園街火勢從地面排檔向上蔓延至舊式唐樓、2016年牛頭角迷你倉持續燃燒超過108小時 —— 這些火災都在提醒我們,城市發展的每個階段都會帶來新的消防挑戰。

工廈活化、夾層改建、舊區混合使用,每一種城市面貌的變化背後,都可能藏著新的風險。

好方法 不應被時間沖淡

獨立調查委員會的價值,在於它的獨立性和專業性一個不受部門利益牽制的調查,才能真正找出問題根源,不論問題出在哪裡

胡國興法官當年的調查之所以能夠坦率地批評政府部門,正是因為這份獨立性。而調查的高效,只用一年就完成報告,則證明了專注和決心比龐大架構更重要。

災難之後,社會往往陷入兩種極端:要麼急於追究責任卻流於情緒,要麼匆匆善後便希望盡快復常

真正有效的檢討,應該在這兩者之間找到平衡,既要有追究問責的力度,也要有冷靜分析的理性;既要快速回應社會關切,也要給予調查足夠的時間和空間。

嘉利大廈調查留下的經驗告訴我們,好的災後檢討,不是為了找代罪羔羊,而是為了找出真相;不是為了平息輿論,而是為了帶來真正改善。

Source: 昔日香港

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1HUgrVD6A9/

屋宇更新大行動

哲學問題:

為甚麼保護棚架工人的「圍網」,會變成毀人家園的殺人兇手?

棚架上跌下一個工人都嫌多,那麼大埔今次已知死了最少159人,多不多?

(後加問題)如果取消圍網,減少居民因火災死亡風險,但偶然有工人跌死或有東西掉下傷人,社會接受嗎?

易燃的圍網和發泡膠是明顯的物質禍首,何以被追究的對象竟然是相對不易燒着的竹?

2009年為工程界保就業的「屋宇更新大行動」開始,眾所周知,從那時起,全港無數人吃了大茶飯團夥的苦,除了花錢,還要在不人道的全面圍封中生活以年計,沒有人理他們的苦況,現在還增加了火災死亡威脅。

- 保就業重要,那麼普羅市民的有尊嚴生活呢?

- 維修為了改善生活,何以變成死亡陷阱?

為甚麼出事,只見「物質」,不見「人」和「制度」?

高興警隊出手對付「人」,其他部門呢?



Source: 林超英 Lam Chiu Ying

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AX2FTynKr/

李嘉誠基金會(LKSF)的公告

十七年來全港第一個五級大火,吞噬了宏福苑。傷亡數字令人痛心疾首,且每一個數字背後,都是一個曾經溫暖、如今焦黑的家庭。

然而,比火更灼人的,是這場災難背後的「價單」。

這場大火不是天災,是人禍,是一場價值 3.3 億港元(4200萬美元) 的豪賭。業主立案法團當初在三個方案中,偏偏選了最貴的一個——比其他方案足足貴了 1.5 億元的「全敲擊(Full Hacking)」方案。

我們常以為「貴就是好」,但在香港的工程界,貴,有時候只是代表「油水」多。

早在 2024 年初,已經有聲音發出了警告,指出外牆棚架用的圍網(Mesh)疑似不合規格,根本達不到防火標準。

為什麼要用劣質網?這是一條簡單的數學題:合規的防火網比標準網貴 6 到 10 倍。每平方米差價 20 元,對於承建商來說,偷工減料意味著 400 萬港元 的額外利潤。

為了這 400 萬的利潤,有人敢拿幾千條人命做賭注。

更荒謬的是,當居民和專家試圖揭露真相,當居民親自測試發現那物料「一點即著」並上報當局時,我們的制度守門人在做什麼?

區議員 Peggy Wong(黃碧嬌)在 2024 年 8 月的 Facebook 帖子中,將這些基於科學與良知的質疑斥為 「妖言惑眾」,並呼籲大家支持法團讓工程「全速進行(in full swing)」。

如今,大火證明了誰才是「妖」,誰在說「人話」。但代價太大了,這代價是幾十條人命,是無數家庭一輩子的夢魘。那個高喊「妖言惑眾」的權力體制,此刻在熊熊烈火面前,顯得如此蒼白、無能,甚至猙獰。

這就是我們面對的現實:一個耗資 3.3 億的維修工程,竟然連最基本的「不助燃」都做不到。這會否是單一事件,這是一個 「系統性共謀」。

從想賺盡差價的承建商,到盲目(或別有用心)護航的某組織人士,再到對測試報告或者有疏忽的監管機構,共同編織了一張密不透風的網。

在這張網裡,利潤被置頂,政治正確被置頂,工程進度被置頂,唯獨「人命」被放在了最低的優先級。

火災發生後,我們可以預見接下來的劇本:官員震驚、議員表示遺憾、承建商推卸責任。文件會飛來飛去,責任會像皮球一樣踢來踢去。

受災的業主呢?他們沒了家,還背著巨額維修債,現在可能還要面對漫長的法律訴訟。在那個冰冷龐大的官僚機器面前,他們就像大火中的塵埃,無助地飄散。

直到,另一種力量介入。

在絕望的廢墟中,民間力量最可貴。比如像李嘉誠基金會(LKSF)的公告,沒有官腔,沒有推諉,只有行動

基金會宣佈:即時撥款 8,000 萬港元。

這不是一個隨便的數字,這是一場經過精密計算的「人性救援」。這筆錢是為了支援註冊慈善機構,特別是那些服務大埔區的團體,為災民提供 「即時救助」。

這讓我想起幾年前疫情期間,當香港中小企在風雨飄搖時,誠哥那個「十億應急錢」計劃。當時沒有繁文縟節,沒有要把你查家宅的審查,只有那種 user friendly和誠懇的態度。他似乎總是用行動告訴大家:「我信你真的有難,所以我先幫你過這關。」

這次大埔宏福苑的救災設計,同樣貫徹了這種深思熟慮的哲學。

速度壓倒一切,基金會申請連結在公告當日下午 1 點就啟動。這種速度,政府部門可能還沒開完第一次跨部門會議。

極簡的信任審計,只要是註冊慈善機構即可申請,優先考慮誰?優先考慮那些能 「迅速向有迫切需要人士提供直接支援」 的計劃。沒有複雜的 KPI,沒有華麗的報告要求。目標只有一個:把錢盡快送到老百姓手上

看見「後續」的眼界,誠哥和他的團隊知道,火災的創傷不是幾天就能好的。復修、心理輔導、社區重建,這些才是漫長的折磨。所以,除了那 3,000 萬,他額外預留了 5,000 萬港元 做後續支援。

這就是格局。當某些人還在為過去的「妖言惑眾」找藉口時,這位 97歲的智慧老人已經在為災民思考三個月後、半年後的生活。

這份通告裡,還藏著一個令人動容的細節。

李嘉誠先生不僅對災民深感難過,他還特別提到了 消防員。

他透過那個早在 1984 年就已經成立的「紀律部隊專項基金」,承諾支援受傷或殉職的救援人員。這一點,極少有富豪會想到,或者說,極少有人會如此長情地堅持了 40 年。

我們常說「錢能解決的問題都不是問題」,但在災難面前,錢往往是最難解決的問題。

3.3 億的工程款,換來的是奪命的煉獄;

8,000 萬的救援金,換來的是重生的希望。

同樣是錢,前者充滿了貪婪與算計,後者卻充滿了溫度與信任。

我看到的不是一個高高在上的富豪在施捨,而是一個明白民間疾苦的長者,用他最擅長的方式——高效率的資源調配——去為這個受傷的社區止血。

不喧嘩,不折騰,但在你被制度背叛、被大火圍困的時候,它實實在在地托住了你。



Source: 中環十一少

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1G7BrExdpN/

大埔宏福苑大火災,揭露香港制度之潰敗

 

圖一、宏福苑沖天大火災。法新社照片。

(按:文章第一部分是今日我在面書的公開帖文,粗體字是會員區的補充。)


星期四講道。施工的時候,工程監督去了那裡?安全主任在做什麼?住戶初步揭發問題的時候,有無報紙跟進?往日香港報紙與電台烽煙節目的言論深化成為輿論,消息追查與偵查變成轟動新聞的過程,去了哪裡?香港目前仍剩下多少份日報?九七之後的第一屆特區政府,主力與民間社會共同建設的社會管治/善治(social governance/good practices)去了哪裡?當時政壇都知道民主進展有限,故此官民共識是推進social governance而不是democratic government刑清政簡,避開民主過程的動員耗損和民主結果的政治福利主義,這反而是香港得以持續繁榮的基礎我在特區政府服務的時候,親見政府部門邀請香港大學的陳祖為、嶺南大學的許寶強等教授來講解善治和民間社會/公民社會/NGO的建設,用模仿美國的社區會堂諮詢會(townhall meetings)那種細緻的討論,建立公共理性,用審議式的民主(deliberative democracy)來補救當時香港沒有全面民主之缺少。當時,政府是默認香港缺乏民主的,也知道其弊端而必須要修補,於是向學者請教。

自由之傳媒,開放的言論,放肆的議員,廣譜的政黨,一向是維護香港自由開放及言論監督的基礎。是否全面民主,於現代制度之維護其實並不真的重要——全面民主之政體如果社會不自由開放,腐敗無能的甚多,美國也不能例外,但香港卻可以倖免。自由開放的社會基礎(social infrastructure of an open society)才是香港最重要的國際城市本色(cosmopolitanism),比起紐約、倫敦與巴黎,舊日香港毫不遜色!港台的吳明林、商台的黃毓民和鄭經翰在電台的輿論角色和監督作風,在民主自由的外國也少見,長毛、大舊和阿牛等人的示威,無日無之,令香港有示威之都的美譽/笑名。

傳統中國謂之清議諫諍,「寧鳴而死,不默而生」(北宋名臣范仲淹的《靈烏賦》),乃中國之優良士人傳統,在香港過去是有展示的,大家仍未忘記,只是有口難言。

如今政府用國安法及國安法的司法手段來震懾反對者,妨礙政府管治威信和所謂「軟對抗」成為模糊的罪名,國安法由原本的反對分裂及顛覆,變成政府怠惰的護身符和免死金牌,動輒以言入罪,批評視為詆毀追查視為挑釁。我年紀也大,但學問而言,仍屬於晚輩,甚至是少年,目睹前輩紛紛歸隱或仙遊,只能草草數言,一心退藏,閉門讀書,不盡談了。阿彌陀佛。



圖二、由大埔五級火警所產生的棕灰色火成雲(Cumulus flammagenitus)。大埔,20251126 1752時


火災原因之科學與玄學


科學而言,火災的起因是圍繞總共八座的屋苑大廈的竹棚的圍網無用防火阻燃物料,變成火網,另外,工程人員為防住宅單位被外牆水泥層鑿開的石子擊中,全部在住宅單位窗外封上發泡膠板,遇到火燭,變成每家每戶的「火引」,而且釋出毒氣,加上八座大廈同樣處理,蔓延之後同時燃燒,大廈之間的風廊(breezeway)捲入氣流,形成火井效應。工程準確地做錯,恐怖過諸葛孔明的連環船計,加上乾燥天氣(相對濕度大概20%)和大風,火乘風勢,大廈三十一層高,消防處的水車只能噴到十九層,大廈的消防喉無水,故此無法灌救。低層初初著火的時候無警鐘鳴叫,也令眾人即使在大白天也無法及早逃生。此外,懷疑宏福苑在二〇二四年安裝了住戶智能電錶,這種電錶有鋰電池,燒着之後爆出高溫的熱熔液,當然這尚待調查證實。

是次火災,與竹棚無關。網友說2017年倫敦的Grenfell Tower(72人死亡),2010年上海大火災(58人死亡),都是用鋼棚架。是次宏福苑火災,首先是與塑膠圍網及發泡膠板在外牆封窗戶有關。

玄學而言,宏福苑的宏福與洪福相通,用字的吉利意思過盡,物極必反,是不好的。沙田的廣福邨就可以,將現有的福廣大一下而已。恭賀老人也不能說洪福齊天,只能說福如東海,因為滄海桑田,東海有一日是會乾枯的,齊天就是欺天了。今年九月二十三日,台灣花蓮光復鄉的佛祖街因馬太鞍溪的堰塞湖溢流而遭受泥水重創,我就與同道說,用佛恩街、佛光街都可,佛祖街是妄稱佛名,不吉利的。

此外,當日有人看到虹雲貫穿香港天際(見圖),虹雲貫天,是不吉之兆。也有網友說著幾日一直聽到低頻長嗚的聲音,令人煩躁。「朝早夜晚都有,好尖 eeee 聲,閂咗窗都聽到。一出SYP/HKU站就聽到,尖到好頭痛。」這些都是異象。

我個人而言,雖然昨日傍晚我在家可以做救火災度母來救護大埔火災,不過我不做了,時間也太遲。傍晚去了看租盤,尋覓新的會址,跨區看了五六個,但不是座向不好(向內巷或向西),就是租金昂貴,故此作罷。途中聽到商場的街坊說大埔大火,但不知內情,以為只是某個住宅起火。回家疲憊不堪,看新聞才知道是沖天大火災,但已是晚上八時,雖然神力可救,但也無謂干預了。十一月十四日,做了救獸難度母救熊難(會員區報導),我再病了一場!好彩之後日本至今無再出現熊咬死人。熊難發生在日本,本來與我無關,但見到受槍傷的熊反咬八十歲的老獵人,冤冤相報,我於心不忍,於是做了救獸難度母法。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/da-bu-hong-fu-da-144515997

Saturday, November 22, 2025

烏克蘭割地求和——美國感恩節前決定,澤倫斯基該怎麼辦?

 

圖一、澤倫斯基的抉擇。圖片來源:網絡


談時局,講道法。特朗普拋出美俄協議的二十八點停火方案給烏克蘭的澤倫斯基,在一個星期之內決定是否採納。若否,美國揚言會撤離國防支援,包括戰爭的情報支援。烏克蘭喪失大約20%的領土,包括克里米亞和頓巴斯地區(兩個俄語州)的土地(但俄羅斯也許要付出租金予烏克蘭當作租界),凍結俄佔土地的交鋒前線,而且不准參加北約、軍隊裁減一般兵員,外國軍隊也不能駐守烏克蘭。從俄羅斯凍結的資產中,烏克蘭只能扣取一千億美元做重建,其餘撥歸俄羅斯與美國的合作基金。

站在烏克蘭的立場,你會怎樣做?你的想法,決定你的所在地的命運。(假如你身在二〇一九年的香港,或將來中共攻台的台灣,就要做這種決定。)

我以治《道德經》及《武經七書》四十年的功力,告訴各位一個好簡單的決定方法,是澤倫斯基可以用的:

烏克蘭可以敗,但俄羅斯不敢勝!烏克蘭輸得起,但俄羅斯贏不起!——這就是做決定的最高戰略!

我當初評論香港社運,就是用這種戰略高度。我的戰略,上通天道,世上無人及得上我,包括特朗普團隊。

其他的,在其他地方講。

以上是今日限時一個小時短暫出現在面書的帖文,因為內容過於嚴峻,故此只能短暫出現。以下是具體分析。


首先,戰爭是政治以其他手段的延展戰爭要講求勝利的政治效果、戰敗投降的政治效果

目前的戰況,是美、歐(即是北約國家)給予烏克蘭最大程度的支援,也是最大程度的限制。支援限於武器供應、戰術指導、情報共享,最大的限制在於不准大規模攻擊俄羅斯本土。由於俄烏雙方兵力懸殊,不准攻擊俄羅斯,烏克蘭只能坐待滅亡,特朗普自己在競選的時候都講過,如果中共突襲台灣,美國將發導彈攻擊中國大陸的軍事基地,並且轟炸北京。

俄羅斯方面,它一旦佔領整個烏克蘭,便會面對西歐,西歐當然不會參戰俄烏戰爭,但如果俄羅斯逼近西歐,那麼只能勉強一戰。如此就是玉石俱焚之局面,西歐取得俄羅斯廉價資源發展工業的計劃也落空,而這個正中美國下懷:美國當年就是用俄烏戰爭來拖垮德國和法國的,令他們的歐俄工業合作計劃告吹。故此俄羅斯只能佔領烏克蘭的俄語區兩個州,另外是零敲碎打地沿着俄烏邊界推進而已。當初想攻入基輔的想法已經放棄而且政治上是冒進的。

其次是烏克蘭。它可以輸掉,本來弱對強,而援助諸多限制,輸掉是非戰之罪。澤倫斯基領導層也從戰爭援助中撈取不少油水,可以退居境外。戰爭到最後輸掉,俄羅斯也元氣大傷,無法攻打西歐,反而會被突襲。而積弱的俄羅斯,也許會被中共奪取西伯利亞而無法反擊。由於有時間、有條件慢慢地輸,故此烏克蘭的策略是拖延到條件最優化的時機,反正美國不會坐視烏克蘭被佔領而令中俄以任何方式壯大起來。烏克蘭的最大顧慮,是被人侵略而丟失領土,最佳的選擇是俄國佔領區是租界形式,類似城邦,而且軍事中立,那麼北約與俄國就有緩衝區,那麼烏克蘭只是順應俄語區當初的自治要求而已,如果美國可以監護這兩個俄語州的自決公投,那麼結果多數是願意中立自治,主權歸於俄國,但自治城邦化。反正以前烏克蘭也統治不了俄語區,經常鬧獨立。

最後,到了美國的考慮。美國的唯一考慮,是要挫敗中共,在適當時候和平解放中共。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭,是美國用烏克蘭的進入北約而逼出來的。美國要觀察的,是俄羅斯弱到若干程度,會接受美國的城下之盟——轉投美國而孤立中共。俄羅斯弱到不堪,甚至政權混亂,反而會給條件中共坐大。故此美國拿捏的是,俄羅斯要弱到什麼程度,才可以接受美國的城下之盟?

圖二、俄佔烏克蘭地區。圖片來源:中央社。


附錄:二十八點協議


領土與俄烏主權

  • 烏克蘭割讓整個頓巴斯地區給俄羅斯,美國將承認俄國對頓巴斯區域的主權,但撤軍區域將被視為非軍事區,俄羅斯軍隊不得進入
  • 赫爾松和札波利沙領土依照戰爭前線原地凍結,意味俄羅斯在赫爾松與札波利沙攻下的領土,將得到承認
  • 札波利沙核電廠交由國際原子能機構監管,其所生產電力將由俄羅斯與烏克蘭平均共享
  • 烏克蘭必須在100天內舉行選舉
  • 烏克蘭主權將得到確認


軍事

  • 烏克蘭武裝部隊的規模將限制在60萬人以內
  • 北約同意不駐軍烏克蘭
  • 歐洲戰鬥機將駐紮波蘭
  • 烏克蘭同意在憲法中規定不加入北約,北約規定將來不接受烏克蘭加入
  • 北約不得再擴張,俄羅斯在法律裡保證,不會再入侵歐洲和鄰近國家
  • 烏克蘭獲得安全保障:美國方面保證,若俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭,除了將採取軍事回應,所有全球制裁都將恢復,此份協議所有有利俄國的好處都將被撤銷,但若烏克蘭入侵俄羅斯,烏克蘭也將失去安全保障。安全保障為期10年,並可延期
  • 烏克蘭同意依照《核不擴散條約》成為無核國家
  • 美國和俄羅斯同意延長關於《核不擴散條約》的有效期


經濟

  • 俄羅斯將被邀請重新加入八國集團(G8)
  • 分階段、逐案討論解除俄羅斯制裁
  • 美國將與俄國簽署經濟合作協議,在能源、自然資源、基礎設施、人工智慧、資料中心、北極稀土金屬開採項目,及其他互利共贏的企業合作機會等領域開展共同發展。

  • 烏克蘭符合加入歐盟的條件,在考慮是否讓烏克蘭加入歐盟期間,烏克蘭將獲得進入歐洲市場的短期優惠
  • 俄羅斯不阻止烏克蘭利用第聶伯河進行商業活動,並將就黑海糧食自由運輸達成協議
  • 重建烏克蘭
  • 設立烏克蘭發展基金,投資快速成長的產業,包括科技、資料中心和人工智慧美國將與烏克蘭合作,共同重建、開發、現代化改造和營運烏克蘭的天然氣基礎設施,包括管道和儲存設施,並參與恢復基礎建設、開採礦產和自然資源。世界銀行將制定一項特別融資方案,以加速重建烏克蘭。
  • 俄羅斯先前遭凍結的1000億資金,將用於投資美國主導的烏克蘭重建工作,美國將獲得該項目50%的利潤。
  • 剩餘的凍結資金,將用於贊助美俄成立共同投資基金


其餘

  • 成立美俄安全問題聯合工作小組,以促進和確保遵守本協議的所有條款。
  • 俄烏承諾在學校和社會中,實施對兩國文化的理解和包容、消除種族歧視的教育計畫
  • 烏克蘭將採納歐盟關於宗教寬容和保護語言少數群體的規定。
  • 兩國同意廢除一切歧視性措施,並保障烏克蘭和俄羅斯媒體及教育的權利:必須拒絕並禁止一切納粹思想和活動。
  • 成立一個人道委員會來解決懸而未決的問題:(1)囚犯交換問題(2)所有被拘留的平民和人質,包括兒童,都將被釋放(3)將實施家庭團聚計劃(4)將採取措施減輕衝突受害者的痛苦。
  • 參與這場衝突的所有方,都將獲得對其在戰爭期間行為的完全赦免,並同意今後不再提出任何索賠或投訴。


 一旦各方同意本備忘錄,停火將在雙方撤退到約定地點開始執行協議後立即生效。(註解更新。詳情請參考:美國終止俄烏戰爭的草案外泄:我們已知什麼?BBC 2025-11-23 11:23 https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/articles/cedx13zpevpo/trad)


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/wu-ke-lan-ge-di-144147898