Monday, March 31, 2025

Sorry, Not Sorry

Sorry is a powerful word.

But over-apologizing weakens your power at work.

Late by two minutes? Sorry.

Tiny typo in an email? Sorry.

Not even your fault? Still sorry.

Over-apologizing makes you look less confident.

And weakens the power of genuine apologies.


So, how do we stop?


9 Ways to Ditch "Sorry"

(And Sound More Confident):


1. Delayed response

❌ "Sorry for the delay."

✅ "Thanks for your patience."


2. Need someone's time

❌ "Sorry to bother you."

✅ "When you have a moment, could you...?"


3. Declining a request

❌ "Sorry, I can't help."

✅ "I appreciate you thinking of me, but I can't."


4. Missed a meeting

❌ "Sorry I missed it."

✅ "Thanks for understanding, I'll catch up."


5. Setting boundaries

❌ "Sorry, I can't make it."

✅ "I'm unavailable, but how about…?"


6. Following up

❌ "Sorry to follow up."

✅ "Just checking in, any updates?"


7. Made a mistake

❌ "Sorry, my bad!"

✅ "Thanks for catching that, I'll fix it."


8. Taking up space

❌ "Sorry for taking your time."

✅ "I appreciate your time today."


9. Asking a question

❌ "Sorry, this might be dumb."

✅ "Here's something I'd like clarity on…"


Stop shrinking yourself. 

It's not helping anyone.


These small changes will shift how you're perceived.

Which "sorry" are you letting go of first?


Source: Dora Vanourek

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/doravanourek_9-ways-to-stop-saying-sorry-at-work-activity-7309202444016566273-g5Fu?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAAibFXUBKjuR4skSQw8r8nr-p7IN-ZCAFYk

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

The 1-Minute Introduction That Makes People Remember You Forever

The Day I Bombed My Introduction (And What I Learned)

"Hi, I’m… uh… John? I like… stuff?"

That's how I introduced myself at a conference once. Spoiler: No one remembered me. Fast-forward to today — I use a 1-minute trick that turns strangers into superfans. Here's how to make your next introduction unforgettable (no "liking stuff" required).


Why Your Brain Hates Basic Intros

The “Broken Robot” Effect: “Name, job, hobby” intros are predictable → brains tune out.

The Halo Effect: People decide if you're smart/kind/interesting in seconds — first impressions stick like glue.

Science Fix: Use storytelling + curiosity to hijack their attention.


The 3-Part Formula (Steal This!)

1. The Hook: Start With a Story, Not Your Name

Bad: "Hi, I’m Sarah, a marketer from Chicago."

Better: "I once accidentally emailed 10,000 customers a cat meme. Now I teach companies how to avoid my mistakes."

Why: Stories activate the brain's "movie mode" → you’re memorable.

2. The Highlight: Add a "WTF" Detail

Bad: “I love hiking.”

Better: “I climbed a mountain in flip-flops to prove my mom wrong.”

Why: Quirky details stick 5x longer (Journal of Experimental Psychology).

3. The Handoff: Make It About Them

Bad: "Nice to meet you!"

Better: "What’s the weirdest hobby you’ve tried?"

Why: Questions force their brain to engage → they associate you with curiosity.


Real-Life Example: From "Who?" to "Wow!"

Before:

"I'm Alex. I work in data. I like reading." → Forgotten in 10 seconds.

After:

"I spent 3 years tracking how 500 people brush their teeth. Now companies pay me to fix weird habits. What’s a habit you’d love to break?"

→ Result: "Wait, you’re the Toothbrush Data Guy!"


Your 7-Day Challenge

Day 1–2: Write your "Hook" (use the formula above).

Day 3–4: Practice saying it in the mirror (no cringing!).

Day 5–6: Test it on a friend (ask for honest feedback).

Day 7: Use it in real life (coffee shop, Zoom call, anywhere!).


Why This Works (Brain Science)

Dopamine Hit: Surprise triggers dopamine → brains love you.

Mirror Neurons: Stories make people "feel" your intro → emotional connection.

Recency Bias: End with a question → you're the last thing they remember.


Source: Alessia Fransisca

https://medium.com/social-science-weekly/the-1-minute-introduction-that-makes-people-remember-you-forever-497cefcfdccc

Thursday, March 13, 2025

How “circles of trust” explain the political divide

Last month, Nichola Raihani — British psychologist and author of The Social Instinct, a book about the history of human cooperation — published a fascinating story on Medium. It made me think differently about why (in the U.S., at least) we’re so divided politically.

A Gallup poll released in January reveals that Republicans’ and Democrats’ ideologies have grown more extreme in the last 30 years. Even if you compare polls from the last 2–3 years, the number of people who label themselves “very conservative” or “very liberal” is increasing.

Raihani sees political division through a specific lens: circles of trust. We mentioned this briefly in issue #261, but essentially, political differences (in Raihani’s view) come down to how we envision our obligations to people who are not close family or friends. She cites a behavioral study which found that political conservatives “profess greater love for their family, but less love for humanity as a whole (with political liberals showing the opposite pattern).” Conservatives’ circles of trust are smaller (family + township come first); liberalscircles of trust are larger (love for humanity writ large). By extension, conservatives trust institutions less than liberals, because institutions (e.g. banks, schools, governments) are basically manifestations of care for people beyond your core family/friend group.

For an institution to exist, its users must have a pretty wide circle of trust.

More interestingly, our circles of trust expand and contract over time. If we perceive our institutions as untrustworthy, our circles of trust shrink; if our institutions serve us well, they expand. Raihani concludes: “Our moral boundaries are, therefore, determined as much by the society that we live in as they are by our own personal values and beliefs.”


Source: Harris Sockel

https://blog.medium.com/how-circles-of-trust-explain-the-political-divide-d51a058a16ac

Monday, March 10, 2025

How to Combine LLMs for Your Breakthrough AI Learning Stack

A cognitive science approach on when to use ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, DeepSeek, Gemini or Grok.



What if you could have a personal team of AI tutors, each specializing in a different aspect of learning? One breaking down complex ideas, another fact-checking through the latest research, and yet another providing vocal feedback on your performance.

This guide shows you how to match each model's unique capabilities to specific learning processes—creating a personalized system that's greater than the sum of its parts.

Caveat: I’ve researched this over the past week and am publishing it on March 10. AI moves fast—new releases, little documentation. I might get things wrong, or you might disagree (please let me know in the comments!).


Here’s a breakdown of each category—so you can confidently choose the right AI for your needs. By the end, you’ll be LLM-literate and know exactly which model to use (plus, I’ll share specific examples you can apply right away).

https://www.canva.com/design/DAF_Z_pow14/Gd43WNwegfF27vILvr41ZA/edit

Source: Eva Keiffenheim

https://evakeiffenheim.substack.com/p/how-to-combine-llms-for-your-breakthrough

Monday, March 03, 2025

特朗普佛心解說,歐洲盟友歸隊,普京夜長夢多

既然特朗普佛如此大方,將礦產投資計劃暗含美國安全保障講個清楚,我也不妨將歐洲的姿態講清楚。英法帶頭籌備好烏克蘭防衛聯盟之後,北約成員國的美國就被逼被動地支援,即是整個北約都加入防衛了。

由於美國是被人捉媒人上轎,故此特朗普也容易向普京交代,說自己是被人挾持的,媒人被捉上轎,怪不得我啊。最想停戰的普京,被澤倫斯基使計,拖延之後由英國駐軍變成北約駐軍烏克蘭保護,烏克蘭並無北約成員國之名,卻有北約成員國之實。然而,普京仍可接受和平協議,畢竟他懼怕的是名,不是實。所謂不打不相識,北約國家在俄烏戰爭買了個教訓,弄得自己三年戰爭期間得不到俄國天然氣和烏克蘭礦產、農產,民生困苦,工廠荒廢,日後該不會再做北約東擴之事吧。

香港仍有希望,因為我在。世界上,有幾多人可以解釋明白給你看?這是尋常的人情世故,但屬於擺得上檯面、出得國際場合的人情世故,最緊要的是,這是基於仁心的人情世故,不是爭權奪利的權謀。香港人要學。


附錄:

哥倫比亞大學經濟學家Jeffrey Sachs 二月十九日在歐洲議會解釋為何普京會攻打烏克蘭。Jeffrey Sachs' roaring speech at EU Parliament, lambasts US Europe over Ukraine war. ET Online | 01 Mar 2025, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/jeffrey-sachs-roaring-speech-at-eu-parliament-lambasts-us-europe-over-ukraine-war/videoshow/118652924.cms?from=mdr ; 短片:‘Putin-Trump will end Ukraine war, cut your losses’: Jeffrey Sachs to Europe in fiery EU speech https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sc4FiMmT-I

Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/te-lang-pu-fo-ou-123532775

https://www.facebook.com/wan.chin.75/posts/pfbid02z8QgJ6pmkEjS6GBtqToMk8Ynpx2meaYkT7XfWJYJBfAADmEzki8hA7PptHktrjDFl

Saturday, March 01, 2025

澤倫斯基大無畏,火中取栗翻桌子

 

圖、澤倫斯基大鬧白宮

古有孫悟空大鬧天宮,今有澤倫斯基大鬧白宮。尋常政治妥協的藝術高深政治不妥協的藝術。前者有特朗普在調停俄烏戰爭的示範,後者由澤倫斯基示範。澤倫斯基一直不妥協,開戰之初,沒聽拜登說走去波蘭流亡,死守住基輔近郊,也沒聽特朗普說割讓礦產來換取和平。

特朗普說要烏克蘭交出機要礦產來換取美國介入和平協議之後,特朗普退了一步,說是共同開發,美國買貨付款的一半收益播歸烏克蘭的建設基金。之後,英國的維和部隊和法國的礦產開發參與也來了。這是特朗普第一次讓步,令澤倫斯基得到變相的馬歇爾計劃——那是美國無償援助二戰之後的德國和日本,並協助它們改革憲政民主和建立公民社會。

第一步成功之後,澤倫斯基想要第二步讓步,就是要美國保證烏克蘭的安全,保證俄羅斯不會好似二〇二二年攻打烏克蘭那樣,再次撕毀和平協議,於是澤倫斯基想要有一點美國駐軍在烏克蘭東部的礦產開發區。

談起駐軍,這不免令我回憶起一九八四年談起香港的中共駐軍問題。原本鄧小平是不想駐軍的,但也不講明白不駐軍,然而,前國防部長耿飚向香港記者說中央不駐軍,只是掛一面旗,此話令鄧小平相當懊惱,於是斥責這是胡說八道,說香港是中國領土,豈可不駐軍?後來,鄧小平對此感到後悔和遺憾,好好的曖昧藝術被多言的耿飆糟蹋了。

這令特朗普相當難堪,因為他之前講過美國不會給予烏克蘭太多的安全保障,主要由歐洲提供,目前已有英國承諾派出維和部隊,將來很可能也有法國與德國加入,然而這是特朗普的權宜之計,因為援助烏克蘭是整個北約的參與,美國只是出較大一份、給予較多的先進武器和戰略指導。現在和平停火之後,美國要抽身而出,留下北約的歐洲部分來防衛烏克蘭,這是虎頭蛇尾,也不合道義,澤倫斯基是吃準了這一點來爭取。特朗普這位大佬,想顯示的,正如我之前在會員區的戰略分析短片說的,他要最大一份,要利益最大化,而烏克蘭得到的是利益最小化——割讓價值五千億美元的烏克蘭機要礦產給美國來抵償軍援(大概兩千億美元),令美國大賺。

澤倫斯基能否善罷甘休、所謂港人那些政治傻瓜說的「見好就收」呢?可以,但也不必。既然美國讓了第一步,當然也會讓第二步。讓第二步就是包括美軍的北約整體派出維持和平部隊駐守在礦區,也就是烏克蘭東部的防線。那麼讓第三步呢?就是普京來讓:普京讓出佔領區的主權,宣稱由烏東佔領區的自治議會自行決定,而北約認為該等地區的民主公投不可靠,於是由北約託管和監督若干時日……


好了!到了談判最要緊的地方,就是看誰輸得起,誰輸不起!首先,輸不起的是俄羅斯,也是其頭目普京!在俄羅斯的國家,也在普京的個人顏面,俄羅斯輸不起,它必須要宣布勝利完成而停火。著急的是普京,不是澤倫斯基,更不是特朗普。烏克蘭是破罐子破摔,北約的軍火和援助源源不絕,俄羅斯民窮財盡,難以為繼。特朗普呢,是逞個人之強,但強澤倫斯基之所難,他想美國抽身而出,集中資源做工業重建和圍堵中共,也避過美國援助越南戰爭和援助阿富汗的泥淖,可以漂亮抽身而出,贏得美國人民的掌聲。澤倫斯基也看準特朗普的個人所圖,於是在美國和烏克蘭的幕僚商議妥當之後,在華盛頓的白宮上演一哭二鬧三上吊

特朗普呢,沒好氣的,說歡迎澤倫斯基想好之後再來簽署,目前或會暫停烏克蘭的援助——當然,已經付運的停止不了。美國是不能打贏這場仗,因為懼怕普京倒台引起更大混亂,也不能在中途打輸,這意味美國重演它在越南和阿富汗的窘態。在特朗普執政的第一屆,他毅然決定與塔利班有和平約定,之後撤軍阿富汗。事前當然知道塔利班會違背諾言,奪權執政,也會殘殺幫助美軍基地的阿富汗人。然而,沒法子,反正阿富汗的混亂只是害慘中共,無傷於歐美與日本。美國在烏克蘭這邊呢,不能打贏也不能打輸,只能和談,那麼俄烏美歐四方的道義和利益都要拉扯計算。

至於烏克蘭,打贏俄羅斯可以,可以復仇,打輸也沒所謂,雖敗猶榮,而且俄軍佔領烏克蘭全部之後,緊迫北約,最終北約也要開戰,到時俄羅斯不堪一擊,北約會幫烏克蘭報仇。烏克蘭繼續打也可以,反正援助源源不絕。於是,澤倫斯基就在白宮胡鬧了!

必死者,橫行於天下。說到底呀,命都不要,豁出去之後,澤倫斯基才是在牌局最自由的人。特朗普說澤倫斯基手上沒牌,是說給美國人聽罷了。


附錄:

是次鳳凰衛視的短片剪輯甚有意思,證明中共是看透此事的,但無可奈何!

一、鳳凰衛視 2025-03-01 04:53【從戰爭一開始就孤軍奮戰?澤連斯基言論惹特朗普狂嗆:那個愚蠢的總統給了你們3500億美元!】澤連斯基與特朗普在白宮爆發激烈爭執。特朗普直言烏克蘭陷入了大麻煩,因為美國才有如今絕佳的脫身機會。但澤連斯基回應稱烏克蘭從一開始就孤軍奮戰,從而惹惱了特朗普。他先是批評拜登“給了烏克蘭3500億美元”,隨後又指若非美國提供武器裝備,俄烏衝突兩周之內就結束了。

https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=9534267599927359


二、鳳凰衛視2025-03-01 12:10【“你後悔了嗎?”“是的,我覺得這樣不好”澤連斯基:爭吵對雙方都不利,但強調烏方沒做什麼壞事】澤連斯基在與特朗普發生激烈爭吵後,28日晚些時候在接受福克斯新聞採訪時稱,這種爭吵對雙方都不利,但被問到他是否覺得應該向特朗普道歉時,澤連斯基回應說沒必要,他尊重美國總統和人民,烏方沒做什麼壞事。同時,烏克蘭已經為和平做好準備,但需要盟友的支持和安全保障。

https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=484576874711776


三、鳳凰衛視2025-03-01 12:40【特朗普:澤連斯基並不想實現和平,“他還想繼續戰鬥!戰鬥!戰鬥!”】美烏總統2月28日在會談中爆發激烈衝突,特朗普當天晚些時候回應稱,澤連斯基看起來並不想要和平,並稱其“高估了自己的籌碼”。特朗普還在社交平台表示,歡迎澤連斯基準備好實現和平後再來。

https://www.facebook.com/PhoenixTVHK/videos/2128388937617587


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/123391764

Thursday, February 27, 2025

中共無緣參與烏克蘭重建工程!——美、烏協議內容曝光

 

圖、美烏協定的英文版本,截圖第一段就是衝著中共而來的。


今晚我用短片解釋了特朗普在俄烏戰場的談判術——掌握俄羅斯這個主要目標之後,逐個擊破。

今日,美國與烏克蘭之間的協定公佈了,英文和中文翻譯都可以讀到。[2]最奧妙的前言,是講明「鑒於美國和烏克蘭希望確保在衝突中,對烏克蘭採取敵對行動的國家和其他國家在持久和平到來後不會從烏克蘭的重建中受益;……」(鳳凰衛視翻譯,英文原文:“Whereas the United States of America and Ukraine wish to ensure that those States and other persons that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine;……" )中共無法參與烏克蘭重建,甚至將來能否重返烏克蘭也難有保證。

這個協議,看出特朗普相當仁慈,這簡直是當代的馬歇爾計劃!美國用購買烏克蘭礦產的錢,投入在烏克蘭的重建工作美國的稅金不會再去烏克蘭,但美國的投資和訂單會幫忙烏克蘭,而且帶動其他投資進入

美國會與烏克蘭一起,在烏克蘭成立一個基金共同管理。日後烏克蘭的礦產挖出來,精鍊並找到市場賣掉後,一半的錢要入這個基金,另外一半就是烏克蘭政府拿去。基金每年至少要再投資一次烏克蘭,可以做軍事安全、經濟繁榮、烏克蘭戰後重建等。目的是確保錢不會給烏克蘭亂花掉!要有美國監督,促進烏克蘭成為一個適合全世界資本流入的環境,創造再投資循環。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/zhong-gong-wu-yu-123231051


Friday, February 21, 2025

如果由國師陳雲處理阿伯兩元搭車的議題……

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=967796258824690&set=a.559251419679178

我的做法是積極一面(pro-active side),如果六十歲以上用樂悠卡搭車的人,在非繁忙時段搭車搭船,可以享有一元的進一步優惠。


做完。


兩元搭車鼓勵老人出來遊覽、社交和跨區購物,促進健康和減低家庭開支之用,也補貼了公共交通,如果用獎勵措施令他們散開在不同時段搭車,那麼公共交通的載客量得到最優化的使用,一來是環保,二來是令沒有優惠的通勤一族消了怨氣,不再埋怨阿伯阿婆在繁忙時段來逼車。

至於cut那些六十至六十五歲那群人的兩元搭車,是毫無意義的,只是節省五億元至十億元,但在老人醫療開支增加和老人消費減小的效益抵消了有餘,得不償失。

在經濟衰退、財政赤字但又面臨消費萎縮和對政府管治的信心減低的目前情況,最重要的除了平衡預算之外,是要提振社會士氣和團結感,故此我上述的做法是切合時弊的。

Pro-active的政府措施,是我在政府總部工作期間,第一任特首董建華政府的思維,現在丟失了。那群官員,也隨著董伯下台而各散東西,當初一群政界、商界、學界精英結合的統治思想,除了我偶然提起之外,媒體和輿論也不見了。香港之落寞,由此而起。我之所以被泛民左膠戲稱為國師,是我仍記得當年一群橫跨港英殖民地與中國特區年代的精英的做事方法吧。

Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/122766830?display_app_qr=1

Saturday, February 08, 2025

保守黨黨魁修改移英居留年期荒唐,彭定康嘲笑她是「神風特擊隊」

 

圖、英國保守黨黨魁澄清,修改移民政策建議不涉及BNO簽證。圖片來源:香港01

英國保守黨黨魁昨日(英國時間二月六日)提出的移民年期改革,沒有追溯到BNO visa 5+1.  柏丹娜主張,移民取得永久居留(indefinite leave to remain,又稱ILR)的所需在英年期應由五年加長至十年,且期間且不得領取福利;若有犯罪記錄,或已申請福利或公共住房,亦不會獲得居留權。

她今日(英國時間二月七日)澄清了,說BNO visa不在她的修訂建議影響。此事可見,英國政壇之腐敗與混帳。BNO visa 5+1是既定的政策,換了三次首相也從無檢討或修訂,即使修訂也是限於後來的申請人,之前的依照法律是不能改變的,否則引起訴訟及索償(除非英國國會在新法例規定不可訴訟及豁免賠償但這是嚴重的法治損害!),我在當日一早如此判斷了,BNO visa 移居計劃並非一般的移民,而是前殖民地當年給予香港人的不公平的國籍身份的恢復計劃或補償計劃,故此除了付出醫療保險費用及辦公費用之外,並無資格審查保守黨黨魁不知就裡,貿然發言,不知道BNO visa的情況,也不知道BNO visa的居英者大多數支持保守黨,看來英國在約翰遜被人陷害而落台之後,英國政壇無人可用。執政工黨諷刺保守黨黨魁的提議,認為無需認真看待。

二月七日,香港海外傳媒協會(Hong Kong Media Overseas)舉行新春晚宴,邀請前港督彭定康為嘉賓,有約一百人出席。美國之音在問答環節時問他就栢丹娜言論回應,他首先說:「當以往還有保守黨的時候,我曾經是保守黨主席。」("I was the chairman of the Conservative Party when there was one.")(媒體的中文翻譯得不好,該翻譯為:「我曾是保守黨的主席,當年還有這個黨的。」 現場的對話:https://www.facebook.com/582339226/videos/4050948571893861 ;他在2023年6月2日BBC訪問中,也講過此笑話。https://x.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1664395801790136320 )他的說話顯示出他不認同現時保守黨的政策方向,令在場者大笑。他繼續:「《衛報》(評論)批評她(栢丹娜)是‘神風Kemi’(Kemikaze),我覺得可能對她有點不公平。我不認為栢丹娜今天所說的任何事會對現時的BN(O)簽證計劃會有任何影響。」


新聞詳情:

英國保守黨黨魁柏丹娜(Kemi Badenoch)提出修改移民政策,建議入籍時間由現時「5+1」延長為「10+5」,在移英港人社群引起極大震撼。事隔一天,保守黨在回應黨員查詢時澄清,有關修例倡議並不涉及BN(O)簽證,強調BN(O)簽證計劃情況獨特。有港人保守黨員去信柏丹娜,提醒保守黨不要違背對港人承諾,令努力融入及貢獻英國社會的新移民受到懲罰。

本身是保守黨黨員的時事評論員黃世澤,昨日(二月七日)在其YouTube頻道上載保守黨的回信,就柏丹娜的移民修例倡議作出回應。信中指,柏丹娜清楚BN(O)簽證的獨特性,強調保守黨在2月5日公佈的修例倡議,並不涉及BN(O)簽證,希望能澄清坊間說法。

在英國現屆國會的650個議席中,執政工黨擁有412席,在野保守黨只有121席,第三大黨自由民主黨有72席。如果沒有部分工黨或其他黨派人士支持,保守黨提出的任何建議都難獲通過。根據YouGov最新公佈的民調顯示,英國改革黨(Reform UK)現時以25%支持度領先,較第二位的執政工黨多一個百分點。至於保守黨支持度則跌至第三位,僅得21%,輿論相信作為黨魁的柏丹娜希望透過提出收緊移民政策,爭取回保守派選民的信任。柏丹娜最新主張將移民申請「永居權」(Indefinite Leave to Remain, ILR)的資格從5年延長至10年,申請英國護照的時間要求則從12個月延長至5年;換言之,移民必須等待至少15年才獲得英國公民身份,並修改下周在國會辯論的《邊境安全、庇護與移民法案》(Border Security, Asylum, and Immigration Bill),追溯至2021年生效。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/121780202?display_app_qr=1

Friday, February 07, 2025

想越混越好,一定要識人


看起來特別溫和的人,內心比較成熟

外表大大咧咧的人,一般格局高

單獨指出你問題的人,才是真正在意你的人。


低調話少的人,一般都有過人之處

飯桌上特別會敬酒的人,大多虛僞

同情心特別重的人,一般都很善良


說話總是先誇你的人,一般比較虛僞

經常請客吃飯的人,大多很重感情

騙過你一次的人,他還會繼續騙你


Source: elitesinsider

https://www.instagram.com/elitesinsider/p/DFweU4QMq5y/

Average Manager vs. Great Manager

Assigning Tasks




Delivering News




Conducting 1:1s




Giving Feedback




Dealing with Turbulence




Looking for more? My book THE MAKING OF A MANAGER comes out March 19th, 2019. It's a field guide on everything you need to know to be the manager you wish you had. Get it on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, or Indiebound. Or, sign up for my mailing list The Looking Glass. Every week, I answer readers’ questions.


Source: Julie Zhuo

https://medium.com/the-year-of-the-looking-glass/average-manager-vs-great-manager-cf8a2e30907d

Tuesday, February 04, 2025

盟友宣布合作,美國暫緩三十日加關稅;中國宣佈反制,特朗普日內與習主席通話

 

圖一:美國的新關稅措施生效後,中方隨即宣布立案調查谷歌;白宮那方則透露,特朗普二十四小時內跟習主席通電話。(圖片來源:BBC中文、德國之聲)


美國和一堆國家談判關稅,採取的是遠交近攻的華夏戰國策略,這個遠與近,不單只是距離的遠近,也是盟友的遠近,要攻的是北方的加拿大與南方的墨西哥、巴拿馬,要交的遠國也是敵國,當然是中共。然而,在遠近之間,還有虛實之分近鄰的攻,是虛的,目的是假意用加關稅25%來威逼它們就範,要它們合作阻止毒品芬太尼和非法移民流入美國敵國中共的交,確是實的,要額外加中國貨的關稅10%,是勢在必行的。在鄰國就範和解決毒品與非法移民之後,就挾其威勢見中共元首習近平,那麼中共要就範還是抵抗呢?難說了。中共的初步反應是加美國入口貨的10%關稅,先擺出彼此對等的姿態。

筆者認為,中共做錯了。中共原本就要由習近平主席去美國參加特朗普的就職典禮,當面談好貿易條件,先佔據先機,而不是等待特朗普已經搞掂加拿大、墨西哥和巴拿馬之後才在北京會見特朗普。可惜呀,即使我多次提醒,中共就是沒有這個膽。

日前說過特朗普佛關上門的時候,一定為你留一扇窗,就在對中國、加拿大與墨西哥新關稅稅率正式生效前一天,他分別跟加拿大總理杜魯多、墨西哥總統辛鮑姆(Claudia Sheinbaum)通電話,之後宣布暫緩對兩國關稅一個月;符合本欄分析。

中國方面又如何?美國的新關稅措施生效後,中方隨即宣布下星期一起,對部分美國貨加徵關稅,並對鎢、碲、鉍、鉬、銦等實施出口管制;此外,又稱已開始立案調查,谷歌是否違反中國的反壟斷法,似有與華府針對TikTok一事分庭抗禮之意。不過,特朗普佛心水清,已簽署行政命令,美國財政部與商務部用一年時間,成立華府主權財富基金(Sovereign wealth fund),又說基金可用來收購TikTok —— 一旦成事,即代表華府持有最多一半股權,屆時西方各國過去對Tiktok嚴格審查,例如禁止官員或限制兒童使用這個軟件等法例,都有機會休止,所以可說是真正的世紀大Deal!

有趣的是,華府目前處於預算赤字狀態,未有盈餘可以動用,故此建立基金或要由國會批出新資金;特朗普則說,可以透過不同方式向這個基金提供資金,包括關稅 —— 白宮新聞秘書萊維特(Karoline Leavitt)透露,預計特朗普二十四小時內跟習主席通電話,外界估計,他們將會討論的,正正就是中美的關稅問題啊!至於加拿大和墨西哥那一邊,則交棒國務卿魯比奧、財長貝森特等主持關稅談判。

總之局勢緊張,好看過《三國演義》,筆者會加緊分析。


Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/meng-you-xuan-bu-121478416

Monday, February 03, 2025

蛇年立春日前,特朗普宣布向中國、加拿大、墨西哥加關稅

 


二〇二五乙巳蛇年立春日前夕,特朗普佛化身關稅俠(Tariff Man),向美國三大貿易夥伴打響關稅戰第一槍!他在二月一日簽署行政命令,二月四日起,對所有墨西哥、中國和加拿大貨加徵關稅;中國貨加稅百分之十,加拿大及墨西哥貨品則要加徵百分之廿五關稅。他說加稅是為了平衡美國貿易逆差、打擊毒品芬太尼和非法移民進入美國;又警告三國若要報復,美方將會奉陪到底。

加拿大那邊,今年一月宣布將會辭職的總理杜魯多,也許無官一身輕,立即對總值逾一千五百億加元的美國貨徵收百分之廿五關稅,又呼籲國民買國貨;墨西哥總統亦揚言,將會以關稅等手段反制美方。中國商務部則稱將向世貿提訟。《環球時報》前總編輯胡錫進,則以「殺敵八百自損一千」來形容這次美國對華加徵百分之十的關稅,又指中國是全球製造業綜合成本最低的國家。他認為,特朗普加關稅的最終結果,就是美國商界和消費者掏腰包:「兜一大圈,他們還得直接或間接買中國貨。」

正當外界對於美國掀起關稅戰戰幔議論紛紛,特朗普佛親自示範,他關上門的時候,一定為你留一扇窗 —— 最新消息是他將與加墨兩國元首就關稅問題對話,但沒有提及要跟中方會談之類。有些內地網友認為,今次特朗普對中國加徵的關稅,比加、墨兩國要輕,是他對華示好的表現,也證明中國在他的心目中比較重要云云。


我的看法是,美國對盟友的關稅是虛的,討價還價的,對中國的關稅則是實的,不會減


過高的關稅,是準備用來談判的。加拿大和墨西哥屬於特朗普建立美利堅大城邦裏頭的第一步:北美邦聯,故此要先應付。事實上,這三個國家,早在特朗普首個任期己簽下《美墨加協議》,現在看來美國一旦消弭貿易逆差,緩和偷渡客與芬太尼問題,三國很大機會在關稅問題上取得共識,即符合本欄之前分析,美國在全球經濟衰退時締結盟邦,一方面分享技術並持續精進,同時以經濟內循環來擴大國力。

就在美國宣布對三個國家加徵關稅的同一時間,美國國務卿魯比奧出訪巴拿馬,期間巴國總統穆利諾(Jose Raul Mulino)宣布,不再續簽中國的一帶一路倡議,是首個退出的拉丁美洲國家,亦是對中共在「美國後花園」的警示。似乎當日中共不聽貧道之言,派韓正為代表,而不是親身出席特朗普佛的就職禮,代價匪淺。

Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/she-nian-li-chun-121410258

Thursday, January 30, 2025

為什麼原生家庭不好的長輩,特別愛討回報?(謄抄)

你有沒有發現,原生家庭不好的長輩,特別愛跟孩子討回報。

小時候,他們可能沒有給過你足夠的愛,也沒有真正關心過於你的感受,甚至讓你在充滿壓力和不安的環境中長大。但等你長大了、開始賺錢了,他們卻開始要求孝順,強調養育之恩,好像當初的付出,都是為了現在的回報。

可是真正的家庭,應該是愛跟陪伴的流動,而不是一場交易。愛是心甘情願的付出,不該是用道德綁架來要求回報;孝順不該只是拿來彌補童年的責任,而是來自被愛後的心甘情願。

你們覺得呢?留言幫我分享。 


Source: nini10068 那個妮

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFcGYM8zPh8/?igsh=czZoemFpMW5iazRs

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

蛇化龍飛,勝利歸來——城邦新年文告

一元復始,萬象更新。是日年初一,大日正照,天地有正氣,祝各位身壯力健,龍馬精神,步步高升,路路亨通。乙已蛇年,乃伏藏變化之年,蛇善藏匿,也善變化,龍化蛇而藏,蛇化龍而飛。下一年是赤馬紅羊,火氣與陽氣充沛,大可天地變動,朝綱改換,故今年宜靜觀其變,休養生息。

蛇乃潛龍,潛龍勿用,真氣內斂,伺機而動。躲過疫情三年,世界之荒誕,人事之反覆,各位心領神會,一笑置之。「羽扇綸巾,談笑間,檣櫓灰飛煙滅。」邪不能勝正,惡不能欺善養氣久住,自可見到人間澄清,正義再臨

市道雲淡風清,香港樂得清靜。唐人王維詩句,「行到水窮處,坐看雲起時」,郊外遠足,行到山溪之頂,清泉藏於石下,抬頭便見青天白雲,大日正照。

「大風起兮雲飛揚,威加海內兮歸故鄉!」本地義人伏藏養志,海外遊子勝利歸來


後記:

今日如常去公園踢腿和河邊緩跑,回來沏茶之後寫文章,恭祝新年進步。

現在我每星期都加多一點鍛煉,如緩步跑多一段路,馬步站樁多幾次呼吸,上落三層樓梯多十幾級。高踢腿一百下,由三區間休息變成兩區間休息,遲些一次踢一百下。

 一兩星期內有一次在附近小山遠足,或上萬佛寺的百步梯,刺激肌肉生長和強化新陳代謝,務求做到經常有進步,令自己充滿朝氣。

 老驥伏櫪,不能志在千里,必須坐言起行,才可千里飛馳。

Source: 陳雲

https://www.patreon.com/posts/she-hua-long-fei-121017681

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

小時候聽父母訴苦長大的孩子,心理問題會很多(謄抄)

小時候聽父母訴苦長大的孩子,心理問題會很多。

有些父母喜歡反覆訴說自己命苦、多麼不容易,為了家、為了你,做出了很多犧牲,受了很多罪,反反覆覆一直念叨。

還有些父母喜歡哭窮,總強調賺錢不容易,教育孩子別亂花錢;孩子想買點什麼,立馬就告訴孩子,家裡窮買不起,還指責孩子不體諒自己。

更有些父母會抱怨家裡誰對自己不好,自己生活在這個家是多麼委屈,「要不是為了你,早就離婚、斷絕關係了」。這樣的行為本質上是在轉移痛苦,明知道孩子不能解決任何問題,但他們依然長期用「都是為了你……」、「要不是為了你……」類似的話反覆言說。無法辨別對錯的孩子,只能吸收這份負能量,小小的孩子內心背著巨大的包袱,痛苦成長。

這種親子關系是顛倒的,孩子承擔了過重的情感負擔,而父母卻成為了依賴者,給孩子造成的影響,至少有以下五個(最後一條非常嚴重)︰

一、自卑,配得感低。哪怕他取得比較好的成就,內心深處依然是自卑的。

二、不懂得享受生活,不懂得愛自己。一對自己好一點,就會覺得對不起父母,背叛了父母。

三、無法正確看待金錢。要麼有花錢羞恥,要麼會報復性消費補償自己,走向兩個極端。

四、聖母心過重,總想去幫助別人。過度承擔本應該不屬於自己的責任,讓自己壓力很大,能量過載。

五、最可怕的,是無法處理好親密關系。他會本能的恐懼家庭生活,因為原生家庭讓他不相信自己會擁有美好親密關系,他不願進入。而一旦走進婚姻呢?他又有可能在親密關系中重現之前的家庭相處模式。

到底怎麼改變現狀呢?我們每個人都應認識到健康家庭的運行模式。 


Source: bywenans 柴先生

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFFL849z1Co/?igsh=MWE5dDMwZmxrenUxdQ%3D%3D

Friday, January 17, 2025

看起來「正常」的原生家庭(謄抄)

最糟糕的原生家庭是看起來正常的,這種家庭看似正常,父母也沒有什麼特別過份的行為,但其實問題反而更大、更隱蔽,讓你變得越來越敏感廻避,還特別沒有安全感。但是你甚至連根源都找不到,只以為是自己的問題。

第一種是習慣性否定。如果父母一直跟孩子講︰「你的感覺是錯的、你要聽我的」,其實這是在摧毀孩子的精神生命。很多孩子脆弱、自卑、抑鬱,都離不開父母十年如一日的否定。例如,他們常常會說︰「你看看別人家的孩子,再看看你,這麼簡單都不會,你這麼笨呢!早就跟你說,你就是不信。」對孩子而言,父母的批評和否定,就是在時刻提醒他「你很沒用、什麼都做不好」。在心理學中,如果一個人在很小的時候,父母對他的評價一直都是否定的、消極的,那麼以後無論他多優秀多努力,都很難成功,因為就在他快接近成功時,或者遇到一點挫折時,他心裏就會冒出一個聲音︰「你不行,你註定會失敗。」否定式教育看似可以讓「熊孩子」變乖,但卻是以摧毀孩子的自尊心為代價,讓他們長期處於在壓抑中。這種壓抑隨著時間的轉移會不斷堆積,到達臨界點時就會爆發。即使他們小心翼翼走過童年,長大後也要背負這份原罪,將父母的否定轉為自我否定,這也是他們做任何事情都有種無力感、喜歡半途而廢的原因。

第二個是雙重束縛。例如︰一邊說讓你不要不捨得花錢,一邊又抱怨自己掙錢不容易;一會兒說「不管怎樣我們都支持你」, 一會兒又說「你怎麼都不聽話」。他們會忽視自己話裡的矛盾,也不管你會不會糾結〉會不會崩潰。雖然對你好,但又夾雜著讓你窒息的感覺,會讓你在「要瘋了」和「還能夠」之間反覆橫跳,有愛又有傷害,捨不得又逃不掉,所以痛苦,所以患得患失,還會讓你變得因為一點小事就崩潰大哭。但在旁人看來,你是幸福的,有時候甚至連你自己也這麼認為,經常自我證明父母是愛你的,一直給自己洗腦,有時會覺得自己是個白眼狼、不知足,直到真正覺醒的一天,才真正開始心疼自己。

那麼我們要改變的第一步呢?其實就是承認父母並沒有那麼愛自己。

為什麼自己受欺負,父母還要責怪自己?讓從自身上找原因。為什麼服務不能接受自己是少數群體?其實我們在很多問題上的困惑,大部份都源於我們事先預設了父母是愛自己的,所以我們才會奇怪為什麼他們會這麼做。從小到大,我們聽到最多的是,沒有不愛孩子的父母,父母對孩子的愛是無私的,父母都是為你好。但是隨著我們長大,我們會有自己的判斷和感受。很多時候我們腦子裡會有一個念頭,他們好像愛我,但他們好像愛的是理想中的我、完美的我、聽話的我,他們會做讓我痛苦的事、會拆掉我的門鎖、不尊重我的私隱、不關心我真正說了什麼。但是感受到了痛苦的孩子,有些會給父母找藉口,比如「無論如何他們都是出於對我好的目的,我不能讓他們不開心」。就是這樣的思維,會讓自己越來越痛苦。所以想要改變,第一步就是有勇氣承認父母沒有那麼愛自己。


Source: bywenans 柴先生

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE8-_IXTdiS/?igsh=MW1nbGFpaHFoang5OA%3D%3D

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Is Language-learning just about Learning a Language?

 


I recently returned to my Mandarin classes from a short hiatus in December, and it struck me, after getting reacquainted with my fellow classmates and teacher, just how different my interactions in Mandarin are to those in English. It dawned on me how the way we think varies across different languages; and I’m rather embarrassed to admit that I’ve only just recently come to this realization — I guess all it took was a short period of retrospection.

Some of my friends and colleagues have even spoken of this phenomenon before. For one, many of my Afrikaans-speaking friends have expressed their preference for writing in English but speaking in Afrikaans. In another instance, a German-born South African once told me that his mind worked better on analytical problems and deductions in German than it did in English. Similarly, one of my closest friends, on multiple occasions, would got frustrated when trying to passionately describe something to me in English. She told me she found English easier to use in more formal scenarios — she wrote most of her essays, reports, and research in English — while French was better for her to express herself more creatively — I have a fond memory of her trying to explain the lyrics of Les feuilles mortes to me but failing to find “the right diction to match the essence” in English (her words).

Most of this hit me as I was driving home from my lesson — as things often do during car rides home — and I thought I’d synthesize my thoughts on the matter. Is learning a new language just about learning the language itself? Or is there more to it?


Language and Perspective

The appropriate term here, I think, is something akin to linguistic relativity. The way we perceive the world is relative to the language we express ourselves in. One such example of this — and, in hindsight, it was probably the first notable perception change I encountered early in my Mandarin course — lies in numbers and counting. The number 82, in English, is simply a combination of “eighty” and “two” (80 + 2). Nice and simple, at least to me. Afrikaans has a similar method but in reverse: twee en tagtig, “two and eighty” (2 + 80). That’s doable; not to tricky. In Mandarin, however, we say bā shí èr, directly translating to “eight ten two” (8 x 10 + 2). So, slightly more complicated. But the real befuddlement came when I asked my aforementioned friend for the same number in French: quatre-vingt-deux, or “four twenty two” (4 x 20 + 2). Excusez-moi?

The difference is palpable.

And whilst the French variation seems entirely alien to me, it’s all a matter of perspective. My friend sees nothing strange about it and, in retrospect, the Chinese version no longer seems as strange to me as it did in the beginning. Perhaps that is why some languages come off as more analytical than others; it just depends which way your brain is wired.

Neither does it end there — a whole host of other aspects, including gender, colour and time, can be perceived differently across languages. It’s a bit like peering at the world through a different lens, really. You have to momentarily rewire your brain, step out of your comfort zone, and think outside the box.


Expressions and Daily Communication

As I greeted my classmates my focus was drawn to the way we greeted each other. Sometimes it can be rather different in another language. Not only that, but different languages often prioritize certain expressions and means of communication. In fact, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that culture plays an important role in defining what expressions a language values most. In the Chinese dialects, for example, there are many idioms — chéngyǔ— that relate to family; hence, a greater emphasis is placed on the family, from asking if one’s parents are still in good health to asking when one is planning on getting married.

Last year, I happened to find myself roaming my local Chinatown one day in late October, and it occurred to me that I didn’t know what to say to a Chinese cashier. In English, after thanking them, I generally bid the cashier a good day further; but when I asked my Mandarin teacher whether saying wǒ xīwàng nǐ yǒu yīgè hǎo tiān was correct, she thought about it for a moment before promptly telling me that, whilst there was nothing wrong with that sentence, it sounded rather odd and was an expression that Chinese people don’t really use.

What I find interesting is that same sentence, months later now, does sound strange to me. Again, it’s not that it is technically wrong; it’s just an expression that doesn’t really match the language and its aligning culture. It’s a bit like your friend greeting you, in English, by asking whether you’ve eaten or not — a perfectly fine question on its own, but a bit of a strange way to greet someone.

On the contrary, I find Chinese people often use that exact question as a way of greeting their friends. Nǐ chī le ma? they’d ask, not necessarily expecting a direct answer in response; it’s more a way of gauging how one is doing, I think. After all, there is a great emphasis on food in Chinese culture (the Chinese love food), and a good day is determined by whether one has eaten or not.

And you know what? I can totally get behind that!


“Think like a Chinese”

The phrase “think like a Chinese” is the crown piece of advice my Mandarin teacher has always preached; and this same bit of advice can be applied to any target language. You see, languages all have different ways of thinking things through, different ways of constructing sentences, and different ways of communicating ideas. Direct translation is almost always bound to fail. The path to fluency isn’t about being able to translate words; vocabulary can only get you so far. No, it is about being able to think and express your ideas like a native speaker would.

I love Mandarin in this regard because, simply put, it is a very practical language with a logical thought pattern. As a basic example, take the act of trying to locate a person who is standing next to a car. In English, you would say they are “to the left/right of the car”. But you can’t just directly translate that sentence into Mandarin word for word, so to speak. You would have to “think in Chinese”, as my teacher would tell me.

How do you find the person, literally, she asked the class the first time we broached the topic. Well, first you’d find the car, and then you’d look to the left or right side of it. Perfect. So, in Mandarin we therefore say zài chē de zuǒ-/yòu- biān, literally translated as “the car left/right side”. It is almost an exact rendition of the steps you take to follow the instruction of locating the person. Do you see why there is no way to directly translate this? There is no word for “of” and the logical flow of the sentence is different. A more direct translation would probably be “to the car’s left side” but, and feel free to disagree with me, that sounds a lot more clunky and less elegant in English, and thus the former is the more commonly used expression, being equally present in our way of thinking as a result.

Another, more astounding example occurs when it comes to discounts. If something costs 100 bucks (insert whatever currency you desire) and there is a 20% sale, then we’d say it is 20% off. What’s always frustrated me, as a person who hates math, is that we essentially have to perform a double equation in order to figure out the end price.

100 — (100 x 0.2) = 80.

The English — and often Western — way of thinking is such that the consumer is primarily concerned with how much they’re saving (i.e. 20%), not necessarily the end price. Of course, if you are like me and get frustrated with this, then you probably care more about the end price than the savings. So, let me introduce you to another way of thinking — the Chinese way.

In China, that same discount occurs in reverse. Instead of 20% off, it is simply bā zhé, or x0.8. Thus, 100 x 0.8 = 80. Simple, easy math concerned with the final price after discount rather than the discount itself. How cool is that? I wish shops at home presented sales like that. A man can only dream.


Needless to say, people think differently. Entire languages and cultures think differently. It’s what makes language learning more complicated than people initially think. You’re not just learning a language; you’re learning a whole other way of processing the world around you. And yet, it is, perhaps, the most exhilarating part of the whole process. In my opinion, it is not a con of learning a new language but rather a pro. Not only do you take a step closer towards multilingualism — a great skill to have, indeed! — but you also open yourself up to new perspectives, new experiences, and new world views. The cross-cultural exchange is vital in today’s ever-expanding, ever-globalizing world. The ability to empathize and understand people of different cultures is needed now more than ever.


Source: Calvin Stevens

https://medium.com/babel/is-language-learning-just-about-learning-a-language-2c560b75dd26

Monday, January 06, 2025

大陸豪玩時代來臨!人民幣幾個月內大貶值,應對特朗普加徵關稅

過了夏曆新年,香港消費外流大陸情況恐怕愈來愈多,因為特朗普上台之後勢將加徵中共關稅,中共的應對方法只有兩個:

一、貨幣貶值

二、國家補貼壓低來價

國家補貼過多過濫,會違反世貿協定,美國更加振振有詞加徵關稅。故此剩下的方法只有人民幣貶值,那麼對香港的影響就是大陸貨便宜北上消費玩樂更划算,而南下香港購物遊玩的人就不大捨得在香港花費了。


新聞詳情:

據彭博報道,高盛預期中國為應對美國加徵關稅帶來的經濟衝擊,最終或終允許在岸人民幣在幾個月內迅速貶值。

Danny Suwanapruti等高盛策略方析師在一份報告中表示,預計政策當局將允許人民幣貶值以應對關稅影響,這是支持國內經濟增長而採取的金融環境寬鬆計劃的一部份。不過,與此同時,鑒於外部需求和美元儲備的強勁開局,我們預計人民幣不會出現無序或斷斷續續的走貶,從而危及國內信心並加劇資本外流壓力。

報告稱,中國可能是特朗普貿易戰2.0的首要目標,「在我們的基線預期情景中,預計對中國出口的關稅將實際提高20個百分點,而且預計加徵關稅措施將在特朗普政府執政初期發生」。因此,料人民幣將進一步貶值以應對這些措施,而且美國經濟增長和股市走強也會是影響因素。

逃報告預料,在岸人民幣將在3個月內迅速貶值至7.40,然後在6個月和12個月內向7.50趨平。與此同時,與2018至19年的情况相比,現在對於財政和貨幣政策反應的關注將會更大,而不僅僅是滙率變化。